RE:RBC Complete Baytex report june 15 2023Sounds lovely. However one big IF, is the price of oil. As you can see in that beautiful chart, they assume oil to be trading at $84 this year and $90 next year. We are not even close to this. That difference is huge. If oil trades at $90, then this company needs no management team. It's when oil is at these levels and less that choices along the way will prove to be smart or stupid.
I feel $70 oil is the new $60 going forward. Nobody gets excited here, and they are too worried to pull the trigger and buy anything. It's hard to see why oil will trade higher. If all the fundamentals did nothing up until this point, what makes anyone think somenthing else will kick the price up. Election next year needs oil to be lower for both parties. How does this ever get to $90 per/b
We hear China is re-opening, SPR thing, Covid is done, supply is ending, it's driving season, OPEC is cutting, Saudi Arabia needs $90 oil, more people going on vacation, war, super-cycle, nobody wants to drill, so on and so on.
Nothing sticks for more than a few days. Oil goes up then down, and all the head-lines mean nothing. They are just used for the hour the justify why things are happening for that tiny moment.
Anyways.