Trillion Energy International Inc. C.TCF

TCF: WEEKLY DISPATCH REPORT

[Humanist]

In this week's Trillion Dispatch

· EU gas spikes; major gas field closing

· Shell CEO sees long-term future for gas

· Oil prices set for weekly gain

The Big Idea...
EU NatGas Spikes Again, This Time On Report Europe's Largest Gas Field Set To Close

After finding a floor of around 22 euros a megawatt-hour at the start of June, European natural gas prices have jumped more than 100%. We have detailed the latest price surge in two pieces, titled "EU NatGas Soars Most In Year As Traders On Edge About 'Possibility Of Tightening Supplies'" and "EU NatGas Jumps Again, Up 15% As Supply Fears Driven By Extended Outages In Norway."
On Thursday morning, the month-ahead benchmark contracts skyrocketed as much as 30% to 49 euros. The multi-week rip-your-face-off rally has led to 112% gains. 
The squeeze higher is due to the prospect of tightening supplies with maintenance work continuing at major Norwegian facilities through July. There are also fears that a hot summer could drive up cooling demand, which would increase fuel use. 
James Waddell, head of European gas and global LNG at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg that concerns about European LNG supplies and Norwegian outages "have been the physical triggers." He added: 

"But we have to remember that a lot of the market was short going into this month and price rises will have triggered stop- outs, thereby driving the price even higher."

Bloomberg drove more supply fears for the continent in a note that explained the Dutch government's plans to "permanently shut down" the Groningen gas field, Europe's largest, in October, ahead of the winter heating season.
By: Tyler Dunden, ZeroHedge
©2009-2023 ZEROHEDGE.COM/ABC MEDIA, LTD

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Latest in...
Oil Prices On Track For Weekly Gain

Oil prices continued to climb on Friday morning after a substantial rise on Thursday, and will probably end with a weekly gain, albeit moderate, after two consecutive weeks of losses.
The Thursday price jump came on the back of news from China, where refinery throughputs rose by 15.4% in May confirming strong oil demand, and retail sales data from the United States, which showed sales had surprisingly increased in May.
“While overall Chinese activity data was disappointing, Chinese crude throughput in May jumped,” Charu Chanana, market strategist for Singapore-based Saxo Capital Markets, toldBloomberg. “Stimulus hopes also continue to support sentiment.”
China’s central bank this week reduced interest rates, which was widely seen as a move aimed at accelerating the pace of recovery, which has recently faltered, based on economic indicators.
UBS Global Wealth Management forecast there will be more rate cuts later in the year as the Chinese government seeks to stimulate domestic consumption, according to a CNBC report.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised rates once again, taking them to the highest in 22 years. Bank chief Christine Lagarde also signaled there were more hikes down the road after the ECB failed to recognize the signs of a looming recession earlier.

"Crude prices are trying to find support as the global growth outlook remains vulnerable to further shocks from aggressive rate hiking campaigns," OANDA analyst Edward Moya told Reuters.

By: Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
© OilPrice.com

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Latest in...
Shell CEO's New Strategy Sees a Long-Term Future for Natural Gas

Shell Plc sees a long-term role for natural gas in the world’s energy mix and aims to expand in key growth markets as Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan revises the company’s strategy.
Liquefied natural gas teams are being urged to do more business in China and India, and the company is providing higher bonuses for deals struck in those and other target nations, according to people who have been briefed on the company’s plans.
Shell will examine investment opportunities for LNG export facilities or long-term supply deals, according to the people, who asked not to be named as the details are private. 
“We have always known that gas is crucial for the energy transition, but our new strategy is built around a new belief — that gas will continue to play a key role in the energy mix,” Cederic Cremers, an executive vice president for LNG at Shell, said in an internal memo seen by Bloomberg News. 
Shell declined to comment. Sawan, who became CEO in January, is scheduled to update investors Wednesday at a Capital Markets Day.
His plan comes after the performance of Shell’s integrated gas business helped lift first-quarter profit, and follows the unit’s record annual performance last year when LNG was boosted by Russia’s decision to cut pipeline supplies to Europe. It also comes as the wider sector reassesses the pace of its shift away from fossil fuels. 
Shell will keep oil output steady or slightly higher into 2030, scrapping annual production cuts, Reuters reported last week.
By: Stephen Stapczynski, Bloomberg News
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Gazprom’s Profits Plunge 40% As Sanctions Bite

While Russian oil giant Rosneft and LNG giant Novatek are holding down the fort for shareholders, Gazprom is feeling the bite of Western sanctions, based on its full-year profit reporting this week. 
Gazprom has posted a huge drop in its FY 2022 profits as sanctions from Russia’s Western customers take a toll. The company’s profits for the year clocked in at 1.226 trillion rubles ($15.4 billion), 41% lower than in 2021 with the company citing a windfall tax imposed by Moscow last year as the reason for the decline. The state controlled company has decided not to pay dividends for the entire year 2022, having previously paid an interim dividend of 1,208 billion rubles ($15 billion) last autumn for the results recorded in the first half of 2022. Gazprom’s Deputy General Director Famil Sadygov has tried to put a positive spin on the bad situation:
“We did not wait for the results for the whole year, but offered the shareholders the opportunity to receive, in advance, a significant amount. Due to this fact, the received dividends have a real value higher than the amount paid at the end of the previous exercise,” he told shareholders.
The weak results have sunk Gazprom’s shares another 6%, bringing 12-month losses to nearly 40%. However, shares of its Russian oil and gas peers have fared better, with Rosneft shares up 13.5% while Novatek has gained 38.4%.

By: Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
© OilPrice.com

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Commission Recommends EU To Stop Energy Bills Support By Year-End

European Union member states should end financial support for energy bills by the end of 2023 in order to keep budget and fiscal targets within the recommended limits, the European Commission said on Wednesday.
Since the energy crisis escalated last year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the soaring commodity and power prices, many EU countries have adopted various temporary relief measures to support households and businesses with their surging energy bills.
But as prices, especially natural gas benchmark prices, have recently returned to levels from before the energy crisis, the EU member states should focus on keeping government expenditures in check, according to the European Commission.
“All Member States should wind down the energy support measures in force by the end of 2023,” the Commission said in its policy recommendations.
“Should renewed energy price increases require the implementation of support measures, these should be targeted at protecting vulnerable households and firms, fiscally affordable, and preserve incentives for energy savings.”
According to economic policy think tank, Bruegel, since the start of the energy crisis in September 2021, European countries have earmarked a total of $817 billion (758 billion euros) to shield consumers from rising energy costs.

The sum includes energy bills support in the EU, the UK, and Norway. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is spending as much as $286 billion (265 billion euros) on measures to help consumers and businesses with the energy costs, per Bruegel’s estimates.

By: Charles Kennedy for Reuters.com
© 2023 Reuters