RE:Second Half Capex It will probably depend on oil prices
With oil at $80+ I expect they'll stick to their 2023 budget
Oil has been in the low $70 zone for the last several weeks. It's easy to assume it will stay like that in H2
That probability is very low.
Significant global inventory draws are expected in Q3. It will be very difficult for oil to stay in the $70s in that environment
The Saudis will likely keep their extra million barrel cut in place until prices rise
These $70 ish oil prices are causing significant rig declines in the lower 48
US shale decline rate is 4 plus million barrel per year. The US needs a lot of completions just to replace this decline
The current US oil rig numbers are probably insufficient to replace declines. And they are likely to continue to decline as long as oil is below $80
That means US production starts to decline. That could be a black swan for oil bears. The US is currently expected to get to 12.9mm barrels per day by the end of the year
Todays EIA report has production at 12.2. It was 12.4 last week. This may be the beginning of the visible net declines
US production could easily be 12 million at year end, instead of 12.9. That would mean an additional 900k barrel per day deficit over current expectations
H2 is likely to be very different than H1 oil price wise