RE:RE:Second Half CapexThe problem could be that Saudi overplayed their hand...and are forced too take a 1m cut going forward. The extra demand in August for Saudi barrels from asia is not likely too happen.
Is a time lag so the peak fall drilling last year is USA is going to hit this summer.
EIA has been on low side of USA production numbers in these the weeklys for awhile.
March USA production of 12.696m barrels of oil a day is the last actual number.
THe weeklys EIA's back in March had usa way lower at like 12.2-12.4 I think range.
USA june weekly are likley underestimating USA production. If USA is exporting 4.5m a day...it has to have strong domestic producton.
The biggest short term issue is what China will do. China oil inventory hit 966m barrels in May compared to average of 850-860m.
China has an easy 100m barrels to work with....ie china can go months buyng 1 million less barrels if they want too.
Alot of people in the market dont beleive China will be strong enough to lift oil prices alone...everything is so baked into China growing so hard demand wise on most analysts forecasts