RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Still no update on FH? Strange....mrmomo wrote: Agreed on most of your points MrBB and would also include Cenovus in there as well as a potential suitor for those type of assets like FH. But it seems even they are trying to pivot away from the "dirty" & unpopular Canadian oil Sands business. As for who's playing hardball and being difficult, Total or Suncor? I think they're BOTH stuck in a difficult situation with limited options, Suncor having more "options" than Total.
So i guess it's a matter of WHO blinks first and gives in, Suncor or Total? Because someone will.....at some point. And i usually tend to lean to those with less options as being the ones to "give up" first......meaning Total. If it's a matter of saving money, priorities &opportunity costs.....then Total should be waving the white flag soon. Because the longder they stay there, the more it's going to cost them in every way......even just being idle. If it's a matter of pride & princicpales where money is no issue.......then Total can hang around indefinitetly until Suncor sees the light and starts to hit them where it counts.
GLTA
i purposely left out cenovus out as potential suitor for total's asset. I believe Cenovus want to stay with exploiting Cdn oilsand through SAGD method. They have no surface mining experience nor had made serious commitment to do one. That's why CVE and Husky made sense as both HSE and CVE have similar oilsand objective. (FYI, Husky had a chunk of oilsand rights in Kearl Lake adjacent to Imperial Oil. My guess is husky had likely sold their kearl lease to IMO so IMO can proceed with Kearl Development as we know it now at 100% WI.)
It does seem the SU's bid for total oilsand asset was for FH + Surmont inclusive. Since COP exercised their ROFR, the original deal is now void and SU and total have to make a new deal. Given the lower oil price outlook now, SU may see a lower NPV today then when the first deal concocted. So who has the upper edge? i think SU has a slight edge because (1) last piece of FH from total fulfill SU's medium and longer term goal while total is burdened with shorter term goal of divesting out canadian tarsand pressured by their shareholders and corporate ESG target. (2) and not many potential suitors, I doubt CNQ nor IMO would assign a higher NPV for FH than what SU can see given SU yields better synergy than all other potential suitors. Delaying a deal by 1 or 2 years ain't gonna affect SU much in the long term. Whether it was planned or not, SU re-negotiating a new deal with Total under a less buoyant oil price outlook could be view as an advantegous move too. Sometime it's better to be lucky than to be too smart.