REITS- where do they go by 2030-2040?In 2001, HR was $13 then rallied to $25 by 2008 financial crisis. It quickly rebounded back on recovery, and then traded between $20-24 for many years until covid. Factoring the PMZ spin-off, post-covid recovery it trades between $13-16 (assuming pmz was not split up).
In summary, in the course of a whopping 22 years, when resedential real estate is like what, 8x the value, stock market is 5x the value, money supply is 20x 2001 levels, commerical real estate is down. This includes years of developments, inflation, capital recylcing, and rents that have likely also went up 10x in the past 20 years.
Im sure some REITS depending on the growth story did better, but for RIOCAN/HR & Cominar how as a REIT investor come to terms with this, and know you are not going to basically just rake in the yield with little to no SP appreciation in the next 10 years, and possibly capital losses?
Even before these rate hikes, reits were still not at early 2000 levels, not fully recovered from covid. Is it just the valuation multiple was crazy back then, like 30x AFFO and now they are 10x AFFO?
Did online shopping stunt the growth of these reits?
At the very least one would have expected the NAV to grow steadily over the past 2 decades, unless you owned legacy shopping malls that went out of business and other undesirable office assets etc.