MigraineCall wrote: Yes, I posted about production lag last week with charts, so I'm not going to repost it all again.
Nat gas is a differrent animal. I'm longer term bullish, but too early at the moment IMO.
An important point regarding increasing gas production, is that as Tier 1 shale acerage is nearly depleted, less oil is being produced from new wells, and they also become increasingly gassy, along with more condensate.
Even rig counts last week changed as oil rigs werre reclassified as gas rigs due to a higher proportion of gas found when they were trying to go for oil.
With more gas and less oil, and less flaring, more gas is going to market than ever before.
Also oil well productivity is declining (per unit length), for a variety of reasons, although technological advancements are maximizing efficiency.
The longer term trend is that the US will have less oil, more condensates, and more gas per well than ever before.
Like Iran, watch published 'Oil' production figures to see whether condensates are included in the mix or not.
Most US refinery designs are such that they can't even use half of the WTI the US produces, let alone a flood of lighter condensates.
PabloLafortune wrote: As natgas investors are finding out, rig count means jack. Wells have longer laterals, old Wells are being recompleted with new techniques (no drilling), some areas are seeing higher productivity, and completions correlate more closely to production adds. Even DUCs data doesn't help as many are dead (DUCs).