Trillion Energy International Inc. C.TCF

A Vote Of Confidence

[Karmanow]

"Gas Major exploring potential new business opportunities with Trillion." Good work by two posters that have identified an Italien Major that fits the bill...wonder if they have a Deep Sea Drilling Rig for off block exploration?
"The aim is to advance the Vranino 1-11 exploration block in Bulgaria, which has coal-bed methane natural gas exploration potential, as well as opportunities in Trkiye." 
Last we were told that Bulgaria has a "fracking ban in place" ...
so is that about to change? Or is there going to be a new approach to getting into the Coal Beds? We have not been told yet.
If the partnership materializes, then we will be seen as having some very valuable proprietary long reach technology and methods. Yes, that will be a game changer because the reduced cost of using long line piping is a massive savings versus conventional patforms. We should have been told how long the non-disclosure agreement will be in place? Being under review by a major gas operator confirms we are on the right track and hitting 6 our 6 does not hurt either.
Trillion needs to upgrade its webpage to become a one stop shop for everything Trillion. We should be greated by a large map that outlines each new well, where it is, how much it is producing for the month of June and so on, how much of the new reserve estimate is assigned to each well, and how much Turkey paid for the monthly gas. Most of the new wells are NOT in the revised reserves estimate and we are not told how much each well is producing?
Are we still in "choke mode" on some of the wells holding back production while the newly hired "Balancing Expert" does his job of bringing on the new gas but not burdening the system with previous wells going at full tilt? We need to know! Tell us what the desired output should be for each well in production. We can all do the math.
It would also be very helpful to see the effects of the new 3D overlay technology seeing a before and an after visual. I would like to see this applied for one of the large pools on the SASB that Trillion will likely drill in the 2nd Drilling Campain. A pricture is worth a 1000 words .... so lets see it.
We should not have to guess how much each well is producing and how much we are getting as revenue.
In my opinion : 8 Capital does the most extensive review of TCF too date.
From 8 Capital analysis in March 2023. 
“We estimate this optionality opens up when the company reaches eight wells on production with Q4/23 as 'the cash inflection point' with an estimated balance of US$18 million,” the analysts said.' The cash inflection point is a milestone for a company and the market will respond accordingly. 
"Research held their production estimates steady for Trillion Energy in their latest analyst note. They expect Trillion to go from producing 706 Boe/d in 2022 to 8,130 Boe/d in 2023 . TCF's trading metrics suggest the market is valuing the stock on a heavily

risked NAV basis: On the Eight Capital price deck, we see TCF generating a 33%

2023 FCF yield in the early innings of its growth phase while having the second

best balance sheet with net debt to cash flow at -0.5x. The company's high cash

generation combined with production growth leads to a peer leading DAPPSG inexcess of 500%. On an EV/'23 DACF basis,

TCF's shares trade at 0.8x, which is among the lowest in our coverage space. Our NAV model suggest that TCF's stock is valued with a chance of success less than 50%.
Last I looked we were at 100% success rates for 6 out of 6. So what is the correct multiple we should use now ... 0.8x  no longer works for TCF. Soon we should have a rerating based on the last 6 months.

 

We believe that as the company drills more successful wells, the market will have to give credit to nearterm cash flow generation that could potentially lead to the stock re-rating positively in the near term.