RE:RE:RE:Canada leads G20 to phase out subsidies for oil
oilandgasmick wrote: You are quite correct.
Canada is not getting out of the oil business because in fact:
-Most of the Saudi oil fields were discovered over 60 years ago and many including Ghawar have been on waterflood (secondary recovery) for decades which means that they are entering periods of serious decline Tertiary recovery is the last resort and its coming in the next decade. And believe me its very expensive because I worked for years on these types of projects.
-USA oil shale will not reach its past peaks and with its capital intensive nature and high decline rates it too will become of less importance to the World. Most of the sweet spots that have high organic content and high silica content (fracking friendly) are now gone. DUCS in serious decline.
-World oil demand has now surpassed 100M bbls a day and wil continue to grow so heavy oils with its vast reserves (we are often called the Saudi Arabia of Heavy Oil) and very low decline rates (and capital that has already been sunk) means that our oil sands plants will be of increasing importance to the world. And of course they are in one of the most stable countries on the planet.
-I pity the people who have bought into the fraudster world of David Suzuki.
Quebec is very shrew, they milk the western provinces first until no more western oil (and no more transfer payment), then quebec will develop their own oil/gas resources. OPEC ain't dumb either, they know production cut help extend reserve life for their own future too. Why over produce their oil (also cost more money to increase production beyond current capability) and sell for less when they can restrict production and sell at higher price, with similar revenue? Right now saudi is seeing a right balance of 75-85$ oil to meet their budget need. Saudi really doesn't like 90+ oil since it would curb demand and accelerate conversion to alternative energy source
My quick EOR summary from my experience
I like to clarify your comment about EOR (tertiary). I doubt tertiary would be deployed at saudi oil fields. Due to the size of their oil field, they can't go EOR at small or at incremental pace. EOR require more energy and more hydrocarbon input
Ex.
- polymer flood but polymer is made from oil
- solvent flood but solvent come from LPG, condensate or custom made surfactants, all made from petroleum
- CO2 flood. Saudi need to inject CO2 for decades non stop to repressurize the reservoir, and maybe first oil drop would come out. Currently, CO2 cost more than NG in alberta because cost to capture, store and transport liquid CO2 ain't cheap. Saudi reservoir is comprised mostly limestone/carbonate. CO2 + water = carbonic acid which eat into the carbonated rock. Reservoir could turn to mush and we don't want mush coming out of the wellbore.
-Microbial, way too slow, slower than watching paint dry. I have done some pilot on that, piss poor result.
Message is, at high oil prices, input costs are also high. Many EOR methods were invented and piloted decades ago when oil were much cheaper at ~ 20-30$ oil, in preparation of high oil prices to implement those EOR sches. Look at today at 80$ oil, there isn't a EOR boom on mature alberta oil field. They were wrong because back then, economic models assumed 20-30$ oil input cost while forecasting 50+ oil. It's a pipe dream and a honest mistake, hard to forecast input cost at 50+ oil. Hence i even trust less on govenment covid pandemic model to push vaccination. That's another topic
Saudi has to invest BILLIONS and wait for decades before the realizing result, assuming the chosen EOR scheme work. No one would gamble BILLIONS of $ and wait decades to see result, and decades more to see payout after first EOR oil.
A highly acclaimed professor and researcher once told me decades ago (he also published a paper on that), the only EOR process that had work and profitable is CSS and steam injection like what alberta (and like bakerfield) oilsand/heavy oil operators are doing. I say all other EORs process are niche process because they have the perfect quality, size reservoir, cheap access to input materials and/or free government money. IE lucky few. Here's my take, Steam injection doesn't work in post secondary scheme (like for saudi oil pool) because all the input energy, be it steam, electrical heating, microwave) is wasted in heating up the water ladden reservoirs.