RE:Hold on. Interest rates will fall sooncanadian wrote: Unemployment will go up. My guess is it will be above 6% possibly even 7% by end of this year. What will BoC do? We are importing more than a million people every year.
Last month we added 60000 jobs and still unemployment went up by .2%. This might be the best case for unemployment. If we add 30000 jobs each month, unemployment will increase .3%. If we don't add any jobs, unemployment will increase .4%
For the remaining 6 months (including july)
Best case: .2 × 6 = 1.2 5.4+ 1.2 = 6.6
Average case: .3 ×6 = 1.8 5.4 + 1.8 = 7.2
Worst case: .4 ×6 2.4 5.4+ 2.4 = 7.8
It will be even horrible if we lose jobs or participation rate increases.
How soon would BoC respond?