Pet Valu Holdings Ltd T.PET

Alternate Symbol(s): PTVLF

Consumer Cyclical Specialty Retail

Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. is a Canadian specialty retailer of pet food and pet-related supplies. The Company has over 800 corporate-owned or franchised locations across the country. Through its neighborhood stores and digital platform, the Company offers more than 9,000 competitively priced products, including an assortment of premium, super premium and holistic brands. Its family of stores consists of Pet Valu, Bosley’s by Pet Valu, Total Pet and Tisol Pet Nutrition & Supply. Its product categories include puppy essentials, dog food, dog treats, dog toys, dog collars, leashes & harnesses, dog carriers & travel, kitten essentials, cat food, cat litter & litter boxes, cat bowls & feeding, small pet food, treats & hay and aquariums, kits & tanks. Its brands include Performatrin Ultra, ACANA, Royal Canin, ORIJEN, Go! Solutions, Performatrin Prime, Hill's Science Diet, Big Country Raw, Open Farm and Stella & Chewy’s, Purina Proplan, Purina Pro Plan, and Weruva.

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Pet Valu Holdings Ltd

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Post by retiredcfon Aug 08, 2023 8:44am

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Post# 35577103

RBC

Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.

Paw Patrol: PET Q2/23 solid and in line with forecast, whisker above consensus; outlook reiterated

TSX: PET | CAD 30.32 | Outperform | Price Target CAD 50.00

Sentiment: Neutral

Bottom line: Neutral, with virtually all operating metrics solid and as expected. Tone of the release confident but noting recent shift in consumer demand.

2023 outlook reaffirmed with no changes to financial metrics, and is supportive of our constructive view of PET, company’s premium valuation, and consistent with execution of strong long-term growth opportunity outlined at IPO, augmented by step up investment to support growth.

Highlights of Q2/2023 results:

Adjusted EPS $0.36, -7% Y/Y vs forecast/consensus $0.35/$0.34.
SSS growth/revenue growth as forecast: SSS Q2 +6.0%, driven by 4.8% increase in transaction count, 1.2% increase in average transaction size. Total revenue growth +12.6%, in line.
Store count: 758, +41 Y/Y (+5.7%), franchised stores 70.2% of total vs 67.9% at Q2/22, +230 bps.
Adjusted EBITDA $53.8 MM +3.9% Y/Y vs forecast/consensus $53/$52 MM.
Solid balance sheet/CF to support growth, net leverage at Q2 2.2x, +0.4x sequentially as a result of inclusion of new GTA DC lease.
Inventory: +12% Y/Y, a welcome sequential improvement from Q1 +39%. 2023 Operating outlook reiterated, capex/business transformation costs revised moderately upward, IT costs downward:

SSS: +7-10%.
Store openings: 40-50.
Revenue: $1,050 MM and $1,075 MM, +10-13% vs last published forecast $1,073 MM, +12.3%.
Adjusted EBITDA $230-$237 MM, +7-10% vs last published $235 MM, +9.1%.
EPS $1.60-$1.66, +1-4%, vs prior published $1.64, +2.4%.
Business transformation costs $17 MM, vs prior $13 MM, IT costs $4 MM vs prior $7 MM, share based comp $7 MM vs prior $8 MM.
Capex: $60 MM, vs prior $50 MM.

Conference call 8:30 am: 1-833-950-0062 (ID: 675228)

Expect focus of the call to be: i) key drivers of Q2 performance; ii) colour around consumer spending trends, notably any trade-down or slowing of discretionary spend given "recent shift in consumer demand" noted in press release; iii) competitive/ promotional intensity and any changes in advance of imminent entry of Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) into GTA; iv) surrender/adoption rate; v) update on e-Commerce, consumer uptake of subscription services in late September; v) update on GTA DC with shipments to stores commencing this month; vi) upward revision to planned capex spend.