RE:World Oil Prod 101.8 million SU Prod .748 millionImtegrity, as you know, I have been around this Mulberry Bush for over 50 years since my first investment in a copper mine in 1969. Frankly, when I read your posts, what I see is unrealistic hope. My success over the years has been based on realistic pragmatism as opposed to hope.
There is very little chance that that SU's 2Q numbers will vary significantly from the analysts consensus estimates one way or the other and so the current SP is unlikely to change based on the report. The only real potential for a positive surprise would be if they repeat what did before and raise the dividend substantially as a surprise. Given the current oil price and the company's capital requirements for Fort Hills and future acquistions needed to replace production at the Base Plant, I would place the probability of such an event as low.
You keep mentioning the short position. The short position on the NYSE has actually fallen by 17% month over month and the level of the short position itself is less than 2% of the float and is in and around the normal historical short position percentage so there is really no There There in this regard. The decline in the short position is most likely due to rising oil prices as opposed to any specific corporate changes.
As for the zero decline rate you mention, that isn't true. They are using up their reserves and in fact the Base Plant will be out of reserves in around 10 years. The environmental approval of the extension to the Base Plant is all but dead even by the company's own admission. Extension of Fort Hills is under a new environmental review although I suspect that the company will overcome the new objections but it will result in delays and costs to get through the new regulatory review and place a cloud over the company. The company's botched attempt at buying the rest of Fort Hills and Surmont certainly don't help.
You mention NG in reference to CNQ and CVE. This is very important IMO since going forward as I see a future for natural gas and potentially a growing market for NG whereas the opposite is true for oil. Oil demand will suffer from the growth of EVs over the next 10 years and technological change will reduce the need for oil based petrochemicals. In contrast, with the beginnings of environmental pushback on renewables and the high cost of electricity storage and the growth of dispatchable electricity using NG as the initial fuel, the future for NG is likely to a story of growth for the forseable future.
Bottom Line?
It is highly unlikely like that the market is going to have an OMG moment when it sees the 2Q report resulting in a pop in the price leading to a 25% rise in the SP as you predict/hope.