What I'm looking for this week and nextWe will probably find out what's going on in the next ten days. LB's deadline for a deal is supposed to be the end of the month.
It's entirely possible that real information will trickle out in the coming days.
With all due respect to everyone on the site, here's what I will be looking for (and sharing), ranked.
1) A news release from LB and/or an acquirer
2) Stories from credible news organizations quoting multiple sources (these stories must be about the strategic review process, not general rants about LB's operations or track record)
3) Informed comments from analysts who closely follow Montreal companies and/or Canadian banks
Here's what I will be ignoring.
1) posts that say since there is no news there must be nothing happening. That's a little like going to the airport 10 hours before a flight is supposed to land and saying since no one can see the airplane ... it's not coming
2) sweeping statements declaring there is or is not a deal without any reference to new facts, news reports or analysis
3) posts that deal in insults instead of information.
Here's what I think right now.
1) something happened to triggered the strategic review. I'm thinking it was a bid or an expression of interest from a potential buyer (as reported by the Globe). The other possibility is that the board decided the turnaround had poor prospects. Either way, LB wouldn't have started this process for no reason.
2) There is no guarantee of a deal. A low ball bid couild easily be rejected. The CEO may be arguing for more time to make her turnaround plan work.
3) On the other hand, it takes just takes one bidder who wants to move on a rare opportunity to buy a Canadian bank to make a deal. So while it's interesting to hear that some institutions are out ... it doesn't decide anything. Also, it takes just two players to create a biding war.
I have no agenda here beyond wanting to know what's going on.
Good luck to all.