Will Bonterra generate 110 million + FCF in 2024? That is the Haywood forecast.
100 - 110 million in free cash flow is a reasonable target unless oil prices exceed 85 dollars next year.
Capex the past two years has been weighted to growing and optimizing production. 2023 had higher spending as they addressed the lower production exiting 2022. Year on year the target is an exit production increase from 12,800 to 14,200. Including a plant expansion spening will be about 125 million.
Average production will be around 13,700 in 2023 increasing to just a target of about 14,000 boe/d in 2024. Starting from a higher exit base should allow capex to decline back to about 90 million.
This years fcf should come in at just over 50 million at current commodity prices with an oil price under 75 dollars which gives a base case of about 90 million fcf next year before adjusting for slightly better oil and nat gas prices and higher base production.