RE:RE:450 Day CR rateThanks. Taking this into account would mean a 36% 450 day CR rate in 9 months. At that point 53 patients will have been assessed at 450 days. The final 47 patients should do better than the first 53 because there should be no undertreated patients. So maybe a 40% 450 day CR rate at the end of the trial?
DJDawg wrote: Based on the data to date, here is the probability for the perfect streak CR patients.
Perfect CR from 90-360: 100% chance of staying CR at 450
Perfect CR from 90 to 270: 91% chance of staying CR till 450
Perfect CR from 90 to 180: 75% chance of staying CR till 450
So by my math:
- the one CR at 360 stays CR
- the 3 patients at 270 will likely convert to 3 CR's for the rest of the study. Rarely we lose one at 270.
- the 3 patients at 180: 2 of 3 will stay CR. Note that there is a CR at 180 that was a NR the CR sequence. I have little faith in those ones as there has never been a case where that scenario played out as a CR to the end.
Overall the perfect streak patients are unique as they behave differently then any of the others so far.
IMO