RBC Notes September 27, 2023
Canadian Oilfield Services Trend Tracker
WCSB rig count down 8 w/w to 191
Our view: This report serves as an update to the sector themes we track, including commodity prices, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) activity trends, and E&P free cash flow and prioritization, all of which are inputs to our relative positioning and outlook for sector returns. Exhibits 15-16 highlight our valuation comparables, ratings, and price targets for the companies under coverage.
Canadian OFS stocks decreased 3.5% w/w, while WTI increased 1% w/w
Canadian stocks under coverage decreased 3.5% w/w. The top three performers were TCW (-0.6%), STEP (-1.7%), and PD (-1.9%). The bottom three performers were MATR (-8.6%), ESI (-6.4%), and CEU (-3.8%). Our Canadian Oilfield Services coverage group is up 3.6% YTD vs the S&P/TSX Capped Energy index up 12.8% YTD.
Rig count above historical levels; 3Q23 QTD average of 191 vs. RBC estimate of 209
The WCSB rig count decreased 8 w/w to 191, and is 28 below 2022 levels and 35 above the 5-year average. PrivateCo rig counts decreased 5 w/w, Junior E&Ps (<25 mboe/d) rig counts unchanged w/w, Intermediate E&Ps (25-75 mboe/d) rig counts decreased 2 w/w, Large E&Ps (>75 mboe/d) rig counts decreased 1 w/w.
Montney ↓ 3 rigs week-over-week, to 46. The most active Montney operators include ARC (7 rigs), Ovintiv (5 rigs), and Petronas (4 rigs). The most active drillers in the Montney include Precision (26 rigs, 57% of total), Ensign (7 rigs, 15% of total), and Western (4 rigs, 9% of total).
Duvernay flat week-over-week, at 9. The most active Duvernay operators include Paramount (2 rigs), Artis (1 rig), and Chevron (1 rig). The most active drillers in the Duvernay include Ensign (3 rigs, 33% of total), Fox (2 rigs, 22% of total), and Akita (1 rig, 11% of total).
SE SK ↓ 4 rigs week-over-week, to 12. The most active SE SK operators include Crescent Point (2 rigs), Aldon (1 rig), and Corex (1 rig). The most active drillers in SE SK include Ensign (4 rigs, 33% of total), Stampede (4 rigs, 33% of total), and Betts (1 rig, 8% of total).
Deep Basin ↑ 1 rig, week-over-week, to 21. The most active Deep Basin operators include Tourmaline (8 rigs), Peyto (4 rigs), and Cenovus (3 rigs). The most active drillers in the Deep Basin include Ensign (9 rigs, 43% of total), Savanna (5 rigs, 24% of total), and Precision (3 rigs, 14% of total).
Oil Sands ↓ 1 rig, week-over-week, to 12. The most active Oil Sands operators include Cenovus (7 rigs), Suncor (2 rigs), and CNOOC (1 rig). The most active drillers in the Oil Sands include Precision (6 rigs, 50% of total), Akita (3 rigs, 25% of total), and Ensign (3 rigs, 25% of total).
Heavy Oil ↓ 1 rig, week-over-week, to 34. The most active Heavy Oil operators include Tamarack (6 rigs), Spur (5 rigs), and Cenovus (3 rigs). The most active drillers in Heavy Oil include Precision (17 rigs, 50% of total), Ensign (4 rigs, 12% of total), and Savanna (4 rigs, 12% of total).
Our Canadian E&P analysts project stocks under coverage to generate $4.6Bn/$7.1Bn of post-dividend FCF in 2023/24 at the futures strip. Estimates imply operators will reinvest 57% of cash flow in 2023 at futures pricing (60% at RBC’s price deck), below the 5-year trailing average of 72%. Current estimates imply a 12% increase in capital spending y/y, as shown in Exhibit 14.