RE:RE:RE:RE:More 12 months target for Baytex and others CDN stockJohnnyDoe wrote: HeavyBanana wrote: So Cobalt and Red, when viewed through your presented and differing set of metrics you get to the same value, interesting.
Now if we fast forward to the gap between current price and that value being closed, what sustains the price at that level with all other things remaining the same (ie:share structure as snapped at that time)?
Transition from heavier focused buybacks to much heavier loaded dividends, base or special?
What do dividends look like in that landscape, where $10.00 is the relative stock price and free cash flow goes to a majority dividend driven flow to investors over buybacks? Is 10 cent monthly to ambitious to ponder?
If so, what number would you consider doable for a monthly distribution at that time?
They've started a quarterly distribution and I don't suspect that changes so it's probably quarterly going forward.
Some quick numbers at the end of 2024
Fcf 1.378 B
Shares out 748M
Debt 1.8B
So, 1.378/748 = 1.84.
50% to shareholders so we're looking at 92 cents to shareholders with an imminent move to 75% to shareholders based on the debt target.
That's 1.38 a share in cash to be distributed to shareholders via either buybacks or dividends.
I have seen any direction from the company on how they may split that 1.38 between dividends and buybacks.
I'd be happy a buck / year
JohnnyDoe, the numbers look good for sure and the question really is at what stock price does it come best strategy to reduce buybacks and increase dividend in the mix of direct shareholder return.
Wouldn't the stock price become way less volatile than current if the stock gets that rerate to $10sh based on the next few quarter results and the buybacks reduced with dividend increased significantly to somehwere in the neighbourhood of 8-10 cents distributed monthly?
Outstanding shares are irrelevant if the company is a cash cow delivering a healthy dividend on a monthly basis with a stable $10.00 handle on the stock price. I mean, looking it it that way, the stock price would shoot well past $10.00 in a self fulfilling re-rate anyway.