RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Those who know it the best, love it the leastEvery pulp mill in BC is likely EBITDA negative in Q3 - it will be a challenging quarter for CFX but markets are improving for Q4.
Prices have notched up in September/October and future prices seem to be holding up for November/December. USD/CAD FX also still very strong. CFX should be in a postive EBITDA pricing environment for Q4 and hopefully into 2024.
The wildcard will be new information on Northwood capex program and RB1 inspection. And how they will finance that capex program. They have stated that they are planning to use operating cash flow (no new external funds). Bringing on more debt or issuing shares to funds the capex program would be a bad move.
I think most likely scenario will be no take-over (I don't see bankruptcy as a probable scenario). Kevin puts together a smart reinvestment program over the next 3-4 years, Northwood and Intercon become more efficient/stable and CFX gets back on track. This will take time and be dependent on CFX cash flow.
Next most likely scenario would be CFP take-over. It would be a relatively low capital draw for CFP to be successul (somewhere around $100M - $125M for the 45% CFP doesn't already own). This would be a good move by CFP IMHO.