Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.

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Baytex Energy Corp > Perspective

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Comment by masfortunaon Oct 22, 2023 7:57pm

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Post# 35695541

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Perspective

HeavyBanana wrote:
masfortuna wrote:
HeavyBanana wrote: To preface things on "demand destruction" and prices going too low (presumably meaning below $75) equating to a much longer time frame for debt reduction and share buyback sounds logical but it has a built in assumption that demand destruction caused by a tipping point high price per barrel would create a price shock to the downside that goes significantly below $75 before the company has lowered debt significantly.

To the extent that a runaway price per barrel to the upside would bring on demand destruction, it does not form a steep and direct line to sub $75 per barrel par se.

In todays oil fundamentals, demand destruction would likely normalize price per barrel back to the range between $75-90.

So let's reap in the massive cashflow if and when oil prices run away to that demand destruction tipping point and enjoy everything in between just as well within the $75-90 range that is all but a given for the foreseeable future.

I think Baytex gets bought out well within the next two years and it will likely manifest itself in the period between now and any perceived tipping point to demand destruction one can conjure up.

Last July oil was at $120. This July oil was at $63. It might not go down in a straight line but it was pretty darn close.
Masfortuna, what were the reasons for the decline in price you cite?

Was demand destruction one of them?

No it wasn't. the main reason was the release of the spr combined with the FED calling for higher interest rates and a possible recession (which has yet to materialize). Throw in the media as per this headline for oilprice. com from today, and yet get a 50% drop. FYI the article states that the banks see an end SOON to the energy boon cycle and are not sure why people should invest in energy in a nutshell...sure...

Oil And Gas Still Drawing In Investors Despite Transition

By Irina Slav - Oct 22, 2023, 4:00 PM CDT

The Financial Times reported this month that fundraising activity among independent exploration and production companies in the United States has picked up this year.
Buybacks and rising dividend payouts make the oil and gas sector popular again among investors.
Most observers seem to agree that the key factor that made oil and gas attractive again, besides the fundamental nature of the products, was the pivot towards capital discipline.