Acquirer or Acquiree?..........I agree with some of the "regular" posters here, and i echo thier sentiments as well, that SOMETHING is definitely up at Kelt HQ as the stock just keeps going on higher & higher.....more than it really should. At this point & at these levels, ir's not that much of a strecth or that difficult to show that KELT is FULLY valued right here, to the point of almost being over-valued....soon. So what's really goin on?
As most of you good folks know by now, if you follow my commentaries, i've been saying for almost a year that Kelt is in the process of undergoing some major transformation. Whether that tranformarion takes the form of a total TO of Kelt or some merger of equals or maybe them acquiring some assets & supersizing.......is still unknown. All i know is that Kelt is one of those VERY few small indepedants that can swing BOTH ways. Be acquired or acquire someone themselves.
A few years back, in that very precarious, delicate situation in 2020, they were maybe too cautious and ended up selling very good asets too early. And i don't blame them, at all, that they did that & never have done so, as it could have gone EITHER way. Unfortunately, it didn't go their way back then. Will they be more agressive this time around? Or is this it, and it's time for them to hang up the gloves? Because i CAN see a few scenarios being played out here with them.
The first anf most obvious would be a MUCH BIGGER suitor taking OUT Kelt ....whole! and maybe with a spinoff or not of one or two properties, IF they intend on staying employed in the sector. The second, is a merger of equals with a suitable & similar operator. In this case, there are a few prime choices to consider. And off thev top of my head, i can name at least 5. Nuvista, Advantage, Birchcliff, HammerHead & some still privare operators in the background. Which ome of these would be the best option or fit for Kelt s/h? Imho, that would be either Nuvista OR HH. But after what Rivestone just pulled with Pipestone, i doubt VERY much that Kelt s/h will be so willing ot exchange their shares for HH paper.
Lastly, the least likely and probably more riskier of the three options, being an acquirer themselves, by buyying a decent producer or assets to regain some of that lost forgotten glory. Sure this last option has the most risk & for s/h to take on some unforseen problems. But it also the biggest rewards should it play into Kelt's hands this time around. So which is more likely? tought to tell, as ALL three avenues have about the same probability of happening, even though an acquisition by Kely is just slightly less likely than the other two.
My guess? Something is going on here........but i just don't know WTH what. As it could range from Kelt being acquired by Nuvista or Whitecap with a more than generous premium to all the way down to Kelt mgmt taking on some MAJOR risks by buying out a VERY deeply troubled entity like Birchcliff ......cheaply NOW .....for a biiger paydyay by betting on NG.
As it was the case with Athabasca, this is getting REALLY interesting now, and will just have to wait & see where this goes.....Because right now, the only thing i'm certain about is that Kelt TODAY will not be the same KELT in 2024 & beyond.....
And for those that wanna know, NO i'm no longer a s/h of the company, as i've sold out all a short time ago. Amnd i did indicate on here as well when i did. Making a VERY nice ROI in a very short period. Hopefully those wonderful ROI will continue for those STILL hanging on here.......
GLTA