RE:Saudi and Russia Stick to Voluntary Cuts Till Year EndThe 85 a barrel number equates to the full ccost if Saudi oil production including social costs and so SA would like to keep the Brent price near that price.
In terms of the shorter run, the two big known unknowns are..
1....war contagion in the Middle East leading to an oil embargo
2,,,,whether or not the US slips into a recession some time between now and end of 1H 2024
My base case assumptions place Point 1 at a fairly low probabilty and better than even odds that Point 2 will happen. In that scenario we would see lower oil prices next year which would provide the basis for buying oil companies at lower prices than we see now and provide an opportunity to make a profitable short term round trip as oil prices recover.