RE:RE:2024 budget and SAGD impact
Quintessential1 wrote: While CIBC Capital Markets agrees with your budgetary calculations:
" 2024 budget adds spending to construct SAGD facility. Conventional spending of $116MM is higher than our estimate at $100MM and Street at $111MM, while SAGD facility construction is expected to add $68.5MM in 2024. Production of 22.3 MBoe/d is in line with our estimate of 22.3 MBoe/d and ahead of Street at 21.2 MBoe/d."
They differ in their debt projections however and I can't see why:
"Price Target Calculation
Our 12- to 18-month price target of $9.00 is based on a target 2024E EV/DACF multiple of
5.4x on our CIBC base commodity price forecasts. We estimate net debt of $7MM in 2024E. "
That $7MM estimate in net debt at the end of 2024 suggests that they think CJ can pay down $11MM per quarter until YE2024. The next ER should be telling on whether they are even close in that estimation.
GLTA
mickeymouse wrote: Looking at the 2024 budget and their new Redford SAGD project from the presentation:
2024 FFO = 290
Conventional Capex = 116
Thermal Project Capex = 68
ARO = 20
Dividend = 116
Debt will increase slightly next year - about 30 million.
Spend in 2025 on this project is projected to be 88 million but incremental cash flow of 28 million is projected for 2025 so net incremental capex in that year would be 60 million and the increase in net debt will be about 22 million.
So debt should peak at about 100 million in late 2025 but starting in 2026 there will be postive cash flow from this project - estimate for 2026 is about 105 million. So in summary a small increase in debt for the next two years followed by higher cash flow starting in 2026 if everything goes as planned and current oil prices/differential/FX rates etc. stay relatively static - a lot of ifs but the payout could be significant going forward.
t
11M/Q is quite doable considering they just knocked off 14M and that was before they bought more production. The said they expect to payoff the new purchase by the end of Q4 with FCF, with the little dip in price I don't know that we will see that projection hit.
I think some of the debt numbers and projections don't account for the new purchase because most of this stuff is from Q3 after which the deal was made... maybe some stuff is conflicting in oversights due to that...