Distribution going downLooking back at 2020 as an example, they cut the dist in half to 10 cents for Q2,3, and 4 (9 months). During that period, the nav hovered between 0 to 65 cents in q2 and $1-3.30 between august and december.
that said, the market price only went as low as 3 bucks (dont have intraday) during that period even with the lower distribution which is quite amazing considering the nav was 0 for a number of weeks. So at least $3 premium to NAV. Even more amazing, the NAV peaked in feb 22 at $9.82 but the market price was lower, at about $8, so a $1.82 discount to nav. doesn'T make much sense, except that at $8, the distribution was 10% a year, whereas at q2 2021, when the dist came back to 80 cents a years, the nav was around 3.40, and market price around $5, so 16% yield on market price.
here we are at 46 cents, i would expect a cut, this is not a short term selloff in banks like 2020, banks might be in purgatory for a year or longer.