Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.

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Baytex Energy Corp

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Post by red2000on Dec 08, 2023 3:14pm

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Post# 35775483

Eric Nuttall tweets of the day !!!

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Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

US shale production is not suddenly "surging." This bearish narrative we believe is wrong, has been extremely damaging to sentiment, and is rooted in the EIAs recent inclusion of NGL production in their weekly reported calculation of "oil" production (see chart 1). The more reliable EIA 914 data shows that while production is growing, it is only modestly above our original expectation for ~500k bbl/d of growth in 2023. Shale surging??? Texas + New Mexico (68% of Lower 48 production) has been relatively flat for the last 6 months (up 100k bbl/d). While total US production is up 466k bbl/d over that time, 27% of that growth has come from offshore (long lead projects) and 45% from North Dakota (largely from privates from what we can tell). Finally, remember there was a Winter storm last December that impacted production by ~300k bbl/d so the denominator for calculating YTD growth is artificially low. Have US shale companies suddenly lost "discipline" and will OPEC+ flood the market to teach them another lesson? We think not. With the US oil rig count down 20% YTD, DUC inventory depleted, 2024 budgets being set with a $71WTI strip, and many private operator sales processes having concluded, we believe US shale production will grow less than consensus in 2024 (and beyond).

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Eric Nuttall received a reply

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

US shale production is not suddenly "surging." This bearish narrative we believe is wrong, has been extremely damaging to sentiment, and is rooted in the EIAs recent inclusion of NGL production in their weekly reported calculation of "oil" production (see chart 1). The more reliable EIA 914 data shows that while production is growing, it is only modestly above our original expectation for ~500k bbl/d of growth in 2023. Shale surging??? Texas + New Mexico (68% of Lower 48 production) has been relatively flat for the last 6 months (up 100k bbl/d). While total US production is up 466k bbl/d over that time, 27% of that growth has come from offshore (long lead projects) and 45% from North Dakota (largely from privates from what we can tell). Finally, remember there was a Winter storm last December that impacted production by ~300k bbl/d so the denominator for calculating YTD growth is artificially low. Have US shale companies suddenly lost "discipline" and will OPEC+ flood the market to teach them another lesson? We think not. With the US oil rig count down 20% YTD, DUC inventory depleted, 2024 budgets being set with a $71WTI strip, and many private operator sales processes having concluded, we believe US shale production will grow less than consensus in 2024 (and beyond).

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