RE:Comparison to BNE They keep reducing guidance due to gas prices at BNE but my guess is the over all numbers should be 20% or so higher at BNE versus YGR. That is due to BNE guiding to average annual production numbers versus an "exit rate" number at ygr. Liquids are higher at BNE, and more importantly most of the liquids are oil at BNE not propane and butane.
BNE production keeps hitting better numbers due to drilling outperforming type curve, so likely they are managing expectations a bit there. ie end of year will be a positive surprise in 2024 just like this year.
FCF goes down by about 8-9 million if they drill a second Montney well so free cash flow could vary a bit (hence the 90-100 million range). FCF could also increase if they tie the first well in. Lots of optionality there.
I feel bad for the gas producers that are completely unhedged. And ones that went with collars only. It will be a tough quarter or two if we have a warm winter.
Peyto and CPG are looking like geniuses this year for their hedge book.