RE:RE:RE:Doubled my position here no brainer!Moemoney42, Fair enough. Yes demand can still be increasing while growth in demand may be decreasing. Like you could be earning more money every year but your yearly increases could be dropping in size. You could start out getting ever larger increases every year then reach a point (the inflection point) where your yearly increases start to become smaller every year.
These oil traders react to changes in the rate of increase/ decrease in demand and supply growth. And the reaction is quick. I remember back in 2014 demand was very strong and with the rate of yoy demand growth increasing. Oil was over $100 per barrel. Then boom! Down to 30, 40 bucks. Why? People were confused and scrambling. Statoil cancelled a $10 billion oil sands project. Demand was still increasing year on year. Shale oil. Supply growth was increasing more than demand growth.
So now I'm hearing rumblings of people starting to worry about how fast Exxon is bringing Guyana light, sweet oil online. Over 300,000 bbl/day right now. They plan to bring over 1 million bbl/day online before 2030. And if TMX comes online plus Venezuela coupled with demand growth weakness how will oil traders react. Companies with low breakeven costs will weather any weakness in oil prices. But others will get nailed hard especially if they're carrying high debt loads.
I'm just worried about the same thing happening again.