Post by Potadvisor1 December 16, 2023 @ 2:42pm on this BB:
"From .40 cents TLG is an easy 3 to 4 bagger and wil still put it under what it will be wrth once they finance or do a jv with someone and at least the Quebec permoits being all in.
To expect these types of returns in weeks or even a few months is not what a real invetor does. My waiting time for TLG like I have said before is the end of 2024. I would be happy with a tripple by this time next year, but you will have to wait for the FS, tentative financing, possibly a jv and the permits."
So, in his first sentence above, self-proclaimed investing genius Potadvisor says TLG will hit 1.20 to 1.60 and will then be worth even more after the financing and permitting of the project or signing a joint venture agreeement with another entity.
Then, in his second sentence, he says he plans to hold onto the TLG shares he owns until the end of 2024 and would be happy with a triple (1.20) by the end of 2024 but "....you will still have to wait for the FS, tentative financing, possily a jv, and the permits."
So which is it?
1.20 to 1.60 before they finance or do a joint venture and at least "the Quebec permits" are done? (first sentence)
or
1.20 happens after "tentative financing, jv, permits"...? (second sentence)
I don't know what Potadvisor even means by "tentative" financing: You either do an equity raise or you don't. You either announce a debt financing facility is in place or you don't. You either send out a press release indicating you have entered into a streaming agreement or you don't. Nothing "tentative" about any of these...
Further, TLG itself states on page 20 of its own December 2023 Slide Deck Presentation that it doesn't expect to obtain all financing / permitting / approvals until some point in 2025,, but Potadvisor states his "wait time is the end of 2024". Even people who don't know anything about investing in stocks could have learned about TLG's 2025 target by simply reading the slide presentation right on TLG's website. So much for Potadvisor's due diligence process.
Further, what Potadvisor doesn't seem to understand is that, once the FS is released, the hard work begins. A company then has to decide how to finance the project, either with a combination of equity / debt / stream financing, entering into a joint venture with a partner, or selling the company for whatever another company is willing to pay for it (typically an all-share deal). This is usually not a time when the share price of a stock like this rises as they need to issue more shares and/or borrow money at higher interest rates than established companies given they won't be generating any gold/silver/copper revenue until after first pour and/or enter one or more streaming agreements. The share price typically stagnates or falls during this time and only surges upwards again once all financing, approvals, and permittting are completed and construction begins, which, as outlined above, TLG's own slide presentation states is targeted for sometime in 2025.
My Views:
I believe TLG will get whatever pop is coming to it when the FS is released sometime in Q1 2024 (perhaps as early as January..?). I highly doubt the peak share price upon releasing this information will be even close to 1.20.
You could then see TLG's share price drop some off its post-FS peak if the investment community felt they got overly excited about the FS or wish to take their profits and move on. Regardless, TLG's share price will then likely stagnate, perhaps going up some when the various parts of the financing are announced (provided the market believes TLG got the financing on favourable terms) or dropping if juniors like them fall out of favour in the market or there are delays in getting financing / permitting / other approvals or additional financing is needed over and above what the FS projected. Alternatively, TLG could decide it can't handle financing this thing alone or get cold feet, so they enter into a JV with another company to help them get the project off the ground. Personally, I'm not a fan of JVs because the party supplying the additional money typically wants terms tilted significantly in their favour since they're the ones with the money and TLG is admitting they don't want to go it alone.
Bottom Line:
PA thinks one needs to wait until the end of 2024 to see the share price hit 1.20 to 1.60.
I think whatever bump you get in the share price will happen when the FS is released in Q1 2024 and it will be far less than 1.20. Then, the share price will likely not do much (or perhaps even decline) until if and when TLG announces the completion of all financing, approvals, and permits which the company itself says it's targeting for some point in 2025.
We shall see who ends up being more accurate. Potadvisor, be sure to let us know what your new "handle" will be if I am.