BlackBerry Ltd T.BB

Facts vs False Narrative

[PrincessKate]

Ok…facts about Blackberry are:
 
Current reality:
 

1. $2Billion market cap attributed to about 40M of trapped short sellers.
2. Paid bots and people to spin negative non-sense on social media etc. 24/7 ;
3. CIBC/GS run the daily algo and preponderance of the share traded are under ‘one roof’. CIBC and TD are the biggest MM by the looks of it- so all trying together to accumulate shares on behalf of a client/ clients.
4. Short positions hidden in dark pool swaps. So in theory….share price manipulation ‘galore’;
5. If this were an IPO on Nasdaq, with the foundation, assets, government contracts and potential deferred cash infusion of $1.5 Billlion and ZERO debt…what would it be worth in an IPO on NASDEQ?
6. Today’s market cap of $2 Billion? I think 2024 is going to be disastrous year for BB’s short seller…..

 
Main Assets:
 

1. >$1.5 Billion of deferred revenue cash – ‘off-balance sheet’;
2. ZERO net debt;
3. Billions of capitalized R&D expensed to date;
4. Perpetual free access to use all of the sold patents;
5. Thousands of unsold patents & certifications;
6. Super valuable access to 17 of G20 Governments
7. AtHoc, Inc.
8. BlackBerry Government Solutions LLC
9. Cylance – acquired in 2019 for $1.4 Billion
10. Good Technology
11. QNX Software
12. Blackberry IVY (Amazon partnership);
13. ????

 
Institutional shareholders:
 

14. Circa 298M of 586M.
15. 292 shareholders and increasing by the day

Insiders:

17. 25 staff; owns 102m or 17.4% shares.
18. Only sold to pay tax on bonus share issue;
19. Unable to trade in open market due to insider information

 

20. Largest shareholders include:

1. Fairfax Financial Holdings- 72M shares,
2. FIFTHDELTA Ltd- 36M shares
3. Primecap Management – 35M shares
4. First Trust Advisors – 20M shares
5. Legal & General Group Plc- 19M shares
6. Vanguard Group Inc-  19M shares

 
Catalysts for imminent upside:
 

21. All the recent negative narrative on social media is telling me that this is strategically been accumulated by institutions and ‘ripe’ for a buy out;

22. Fairfax would not have put up $150M, if they felt that things were so bad. Same terms as before due ‘to insider’ knowledge?

23. PW’s/ NY Melon naked shorts/swaps need to unravel before cancellation of PW’s outstanding 25M debentures in Feb/May 2024- problem is that float is tight;

24. Positive cash flow imminent now that multi- billion R&D spent has been wrapped-up. These cost would be capitalized once meeting the definition and increase assets on Balance Sheet;

25. “Bankruptcy narrative” by short sellers- do you guys really think those top 5 shareholders (over 200M shares) with their average $9/share would allow a company with over $1 Billion of differed revenues and ZERO debt to go bankrupt- absolutely ridiculous!!!! But then again- would probably scare a few retail investors that believe anything on a social platform;

26. “CEO refused to answer any questions about the cash reserves during Q3 earnings call”:
    1. $640M backlog cash (Q4 2023) to crystallise in near future;
    2. $200-$2500M of deferred revenue cash on Malikie IP patents to crystallise in near future for two year period during Catapult negotiations;
    3. $500-$700M of deferred revenue cash on Malikie IP patents to crystallise in near future for the new Malikie deal;
    4. “Company misled shareholders on their Q3 and Q4 forecasts”? How much of the deferred revenue and tenders timing are extraneous? Not in control of management team. I think the new CEO is just sandbagging- that is what 99% of all new CEO’s do;

27. Visibility of all G17 Government Contracts now that Cylance has been optimised based on client spec (bundling of Secusmart and Adhoc to Cylance). NDA’s probably prohibited retail product & UEM sales going forward - hence revenue contraction last few years during optimization period for all Government contracts via ‘BlackBerry Government Solutions LLC’

28. We will have Ivy realities on the 10^th of January 2024 at CES- news releases around CES will help us see a clearer picture – wild card at this stage;

29. QNX has been 30-40 years in the making- what is the value of BlackBerry QNX SDP 8.0 to someone like Nividia? QNX competitor Wind River was sold for about $4.2B recently. Integration of QNX OS microkernel on the next-generation NVIDIA DRIVE Thor, which delivers 2000 TFLOPS of performance and consolidates automated driving with AI cockpit on a single centralized platform – what is the estimated EV of QNX to the right buyer (synergy crystallization etc.)?

30. Cylance $275 million ARR @75% Margin post R&D stage- with 17 of 20 G20 governments - $5 Billion EV?

31. Catapult and their hedge funds cronies tried to orchestrate share price volatility to crystallise GAMMA opportunities are something in the past;

 
Catalysts for Downside:
 

32. More shenanigans by some of the SI hedgefunds and their ‘handlers’- time is running out;

 
Valuation crystallization strategy:
 

33. Thus, the stock is under accumulation for institutions since July; Game plan moving forward? They're cleaning up for selling the assets individually. There was a reason why $165M legal dispute was settled- was one of the various conditions of the imminent buy-out.

 

34. My view is PW (Fairfax) will take the IOT Private and Cyber + Government contracts will be offloaded to Veritas or someone else- question is just at what price…and when? $20…$30…$40…who knows…? Difficult to value without fathoming the real value to any buyers out there… I personally think BB’ value is currently with all of the foundational assets, billions in capitalized R&D, >$1 billion of deferred revenues (100% cash), ZERO debt, perpetual access to all sold patents, certifications and ‘foot in the door’ at 17 of the G20 governments are at least worth at least 7x the current market cap…QNX and Ivy are the wildcards…could be an additional $10Billion…maybe double that…who knows what synergies would be for a company like Nvidia et al.

 

35. All retail investors have to do is to put their shares up for sale at say a limit price of $10 for now and move the limit price up (trailing) as the price appreciates, so that this stock lending by brokers to naked short sellers could stop. You don’t want your broker to work against you- because that is what they do, if you don’t list your shares…they lend it out and make money by doing so.

 
 
Any fact based opinions on the above? I am not interested in the super obvious trapped short sellers myopic false narrative….anyone selling this is going to regret this in the very near future….
 
…my two cents of course…