Happy new year, surprise is unfolding… I did comment a few weeks ago, there would be a surprise early 2024.
Again " surprise" by my definition is an unexpected event, outcome, action etc etc.
Could be good, bad or neutral. None the less.....unexpected.
Moving to now.
1. We know Andrew G, left Onc unannounced. Took his options & did not cash in.
2. As of my quick investigation, I can confirm the San Diego office is up for lease. Available Feb 1st.
Surprise!
It does not take much education to figure out, Onc is leaving its USA footprint.
Now some speculation & calculations. ( all imho based on as much information as I can gather)
Background.
The markets are closed & no " announcement" needs to be put forward YET.
Closing the USA business is a significant corporate business model change & imho should be discussed in a NR....Then again, back when I worked for Honeywell, they closed the whole Canadian marketing department, sold buildings & not a peep of a N.R.( cira 1989).So perhaps not requiring an explanation?
Moving the lens further back; Why did they open the SanDiego office & hire Andrew G....?
Was well explained at the time. Not as a N.R. Was part if quarterly update.
" they wanted a presence in the proximity to the biotech industry, with a USA title to be able to better relate to both potential partners & financial institutions aka availability of funds & biotech contacts"
They also at about that same time in tandem. Did a reverse split, listed in NAS & a relatively larger financing.
In simple terms. The plan was to get into the opportunity to be seen in the USA world & build forward into the then approved phase 2+ breast cancer.
Since then. Aware-1, bracelet, & Gobblet. Additional trials.Car- t etc
aware-1 , did prove the desired " biomarker".
Bracelet? Still in progress nothing bad so far, looking for results to mature. ( people have not died yet & results are therefore paradoxically delayed, but for a good reason).
Gobblet , with Roche... The best of the bunch.
Three out of 4 arms showing efficacy & results well above existing standard of care.
The goblet results alone, enough for Roche to take the reins.
Why close usa operations? Why no announcement?
Neutral explanation not an option. It is either good or bad.
Good news & next part of surprise ;
A serious buyout negotiation is in progress. At the lawyer/ accountant phase. That is negotiations are done. Time to put to paper. Would explain the lack of news. During these times first line of contract is non- disclosure. Meaning they cannot publicly say anything. Neither confirm or deney negotiations are underway.
To announce Andrew's departure & closing of office woukd require an explanation....obviously.
This is my prediction. To be announced very soon. Not a partership. Complete buyout from Roche.
Bad news?
Could be part of a protracted plan to reduce costs, move into phase 3 alone, with additional financing from the now near 10% ownership within Canada. Meaning that instution is driving the ship. " cut costs let's get into phase 3 & move forward from there"
That would be bad news in the short term. However if successful would be the best long term " shareholder value".
There are dozens of middle of the road scenarios. Taking company private, Partnership, delisting on NAS. Matt retiring. Whole new mangement. Etc etc.
Announcing " corporate review & outside consultants to sell the company"
What is not at this time an option or requirement,
They do not need to do a reverse split. They have $$$ to operate 12 months ++.
Closing the doors & walking away AKA.: Announcing dissolving the company.
Not in the same window as hiring a new " technical writer". Nor with 2 phase 3 ready cancer arms.
So save that noise.
They will be moving forward into 2024.
The next 1-3 weeks will be very exciting. Not the same old same old at all.
The PanCan cancellation was a surprise to Onc. It was profound.
THAT event triggered serious management & B.O.D. Discussions.
THAT could have excellerated any Roche or other take over discussions.
It did bring about a quick bought deal. 100% Canadian. First time that has happened in a long time.
for now we know the USA footprint is all but gone.
ending positive!
You do not need a USA office & VP , when company is being bought out.
The Calgary site. Nice R & D location;as part of the new arrangement.
BTW my target of buyout? $1.56 billion.$15- $18ps
When the PanCan arrangement was announced , that was very positive news.
Without that ( they still have been granted the $5 million), changes must be made.
at this stage anything is possible
Happy 2024 all.