RE:Market shareSo the question: What could the net present value be if 15% market share was targeted, the discount rate fell to 20% from 25%, and CZO had AEZS's C$113 million tax loss carryforwards? With the upfront money or money from the sale of the diagnostic a PGX plant could be substantially paid for without the need to issue warrants. CZO could also be close to signing a PGX partner with PGX scale-up validating the technology and providing upfront capital. What could the net present value of a CoQ10 partnership be given the CoQ10 market is potentially 4X the size of the yeast beta glucan market.
prophetoffactz wrote: It keeps popping into my mind but I'm uncertain if it is true. Was the $40 million PGX-YBG immune booster plant that could produce 40 million doses per year with a $100 million net present value assuming a 25% discount rate for 8% market share of the yeast beta glucan market?
"Protocol designed for a head-to-head study in animals for testing immune properties of PGX-YBG against a commercial formulation." November news release
As of now CZO has completed testing in certain human cell-lines and found 5X more binding affinity or immune stimulating capacity compared to competition. If the head-to-head trial in animals that has been designed confirms the 5X immune stimulating results as PGX is successfuly scaled up with Natex to 100L this year what could the 25% discount rate drop to? With greater confidence could CZO further target greater market share than 8% assuming that was the previous target? Could CZO be convinced it requires a fraction of the yeast beta glucan to achieve the same immune profile as it also eliminates toxicities and is believed to have the emerging gold standard? What if they went for 15% market share and used AEZS's European footprint to go global? By taking yeast beta glucan to a new level could PGX further access the much larger immune booster market? PGX-YBG can also be impregnated with other bioactives; including CoQ10 which can complement the immune system. Another potential differentiator for CZO's product is that it could be the only inhalable version on the market. The net present value of the immune booster program could also now benefit from the $113 million in tax loss carryforwards of AEZS. The diagnostic test could be sold to finance a PGX facility without the need to issue warrants.
CZO news release:
"Yeast Beta Glucan (YBG) - Potential Inhalo-Therapeutic
- Following the announcement of encouraging results made at two major international conferences earlier this year demonstrating that PGX-YBG is respirable and able to safely and reliably reprogram macrophages in the lungs in pre-clinical mouse models, additional research at McMaster University clearly showed that PGX-YBG gets into the macrophage cell. This important finding further supports the potential of YBG to act as a stand-alone and/or a carrier for other bioactives when transported by macrophages cells.