TD Notes The Gas Line
Weekly Gas Charts
Inventory Withdrawal Below Expectations; Well Above Seasonal Norm. Storage
levels decreased 154 Bcf w/w versus the consensus expectation of a 167
Bcf withdrawal. This was above the five-year average withdrawal of 122 Bcf.
Expectations for next week are for a withdrawal of 375-400 Bcf. This compares with the five-year average withdrawal of 150 Bcf. U.S. gas storage levels are now 11% above the five-year average and 12% above year-ago levels.
U.S. Production Dropped Significantly On The Back of Freeze Offs; Has Started
to Recover. U.S. production dropped to 91 Bcf/d earlier this week driven by cold
weather-related shut-ins. This is down from highs of ~105 Bcf/d several weeks ago. That said, U.S. dry production now stands at ~96 Bcf/d. The U.S. natural gas rig count was down one w/w (117). Colder temperatures drove total U.S. domestic demand to a record high of 158 Bcf/d on January 15. We expect production curtailments and strong demand to result in a significant storage drawdown this week which should reduce inventory overhang in the near-term.