RE:What is a fair expectation of production?I would say this, in Q3 there was a MaMahon turn around that shut in almost 5,000 boe/day for a portion of Q3, they also had issues at the Tidewater gas plant. Tidewater was not resolved until sometime in Q4.
The impact on Q3 production was approximately 2700 boe/day.
So in Q3 they had the capacity to produce was 28,179, adding 2700 boe/day that means in Q3 Kelt could of produced 30,879 boe/day.
So on Q4 add 22 MMcf a day with roughly 60% liquids.
22 MMcf (3,666 gas) + 5,500 liquids = 9,166 boe/day
So if it works out perfectly the production capacity with just the addition of the wembley wells and gas plant could be 40,045 boe/day (theoritical)
So since Q3 there has been no produciton added at Oak, and Wembley will be limited by the gas plant expansion. However their may be some wells in Pouce Coupe (Charlie Lake), or other wells in Progress/Spirit River.
So conservatively speaking i would guess that Kelt is currently producing 38,000 - 40,000 boe day in Q1 2024.
In 2024 they will be bring on wells at Oak (11 wells), and another chunk of plant at the end of 2024 for wembley (50 MMcf), expect a big increase of production at the end of Q4.
So between the end of 2024, i expect Kelt will have the well capacity to push 60,000 boe/day but the question is how long it will take to bring the production on, stablize it and tie it all in.
This is my opinion from what i can see, there could be error in my analysis, but i am pretty confident in what is happening here.
IMHO