Tilray Brands - German Cannabis Legalization Update "Germany Update: Its getting serious
So, we have more information on the Cannabis Law in Germany.
I admit, I am nervous.
This will be the timeline for next week. (Feb 19 - 23)
Wednesday: Feb 21
The important Finance Committee Vote 9am Berlin Time.
https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/989896/81f177ca58fbe25fcdc3102fa60e524d/083-Sitz-.pdf
(guaranteed pass)
The important Health Committee 09:30 AM Berlin time according to pretty decent leak. The health committee is the one who can enable a vote on the bill.
(guaranteed pass)
I am a bit nervous about the vote in the Committee on the Interior and Homeland, but they would not be able to stop a vote, even if they tried. This committee has the biggest opposition to the bill.
Final Vote. Thursday or friday. Likely Thursday (Feb 22)
The Conservatives are calling for a vote by name. Nothing too problematic, but it could highlight the opposition to the law within the ruling parties. It is still unlikely to fail, simply because of the strong majority the government has. We might get a pleasant surprise and the opposition in the government will simply abstain. But that is just speculation. In any case, the vote can survive a narrow passage with the help of the far left-wing parties outside the government, who are all in favour of the bill. A pass is a pass.
Federal council vote
On the 22 of March: the Conservatives threaten a delaying tactic by blocking the passing. In my opinion this is a groundless threat. According to my calculations, they do not have the numbers for a temporary blockade. If they succeed, it can theoretically be overturned by another vote in Parliament (simple majority). But i do trust that the progressive parties in the german states do not allow such a scenario. The trial vote last year was already positive. The states do not really like the bill but basically said they wouldnt really oppose it.
At least i hope so. In any case its just a delaying tactic.
The government will experience the fallacy of sunk costs: they have invested a lot of political power in this bill, so it has to pass, otherwise it will be embarrassing for them. Maybe in this scenario it will be watered down a bit, less access through the non-commercial system, but the important medical provisions are unlikely to be tampered with.
Presidental signature
No problem. The President has limited powers to prevent a bill from being signed into law. Cannabis does not fall into these powers. If the bill passes the federal council, the president will likely sign "soon".
Court proceedings.
(probably the best news coming out of germany today).
The conservatives are not threating legal action against the bill. https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/149269/Union-hofft-noch-auf-Scheitern-der-Cannabislegalisierung
It would also be baseless. The german supreme court made it clear that the goverment had the constitutional right to legalise cannabis.
Addendum: Impact on stocks (just my take)
Hell, I don't know if the shares would react at all. It would definitely benefit medical providers, but I am the last person to know if the big funds would care. The interesting thing is that the Conservatives are also threatening to simply not grant licences to non-commercial cannabis providers. This would certainly have a positive impact on medical providers in the sense that the only viable way to access cannabis would be through the extremely relaxed medical licensing system."
From reddit Weedstocks, fellow whom works in Berlin closely following this.
NOTE: Aurora, Demecan, Aphria/Tilray are German Licensed Medical Cannabis suppliers with In Country grow facilities & distribution.