Scotiabank Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie says “there’s no floor beneath natural gas prices” and revisited his firm’s top ideas in the sector,
“It seems there’s no floor beneath natural gas prices, which have been cut in half in the past three months. While nat gas stocks are already down hard, more headwinds could be coming in the form of a steep round of negative earnings and cash flow revisions. Spot prices are trading well below the average sell-side forecasts for all quarters of 2024. If the situation persists, quarter-end mark-to-market won’t be pretty: we’d expect sell-side analysts to sharply trim EPS/CFPS expectations, which in turn could hurt nat gas stocks’ “Growth” rankings in our quant models… For longer-term investors, Scotiabank GBM Oil & Gas – E&P Research Analyst Cameron Bean remains optimistic about 2025 prospects, so for investors willing to ride the storm, the current pullback could offer decent opportunities. Cameron revisits his top ideas – AAV-T, TOU-T, and RRC-N – and provides earnings and cash flow sensitivity tables.