RE:RE:RE:RE:As it looks right now… So recalculating some of the previous post with Ned’s note that I brain farted and didn’t think about…
Q4 numbers that are upcoming will be calculated on the shares before this placement, and expect to see a distributable income number that rises likely between 11.2-12M and show around 7.8-8.3 cents per share.
The next big data point currently won't be until Q1 (3 months from now) where as these new shares are calculated into the numbers. At that time Q1 should feature increased rates on a couple royalties, increased store royalty pools, lower interest expenses, amongst other things I'm not thinking of right now... It's really hard to project those numbers that far out, but they may have distributable income in the 12.1 -13M range at that time which would be about 7.36- 7.91 cents per share (6.25 is 100% payout ratio coverage on 25 cents).
How I would use this for a target share value if you believe my numbers above and how I've attempted to value things before. On 12.1 distributable income in Q1 that equals 7.36 cents per share (29.4 cents per year), dividend payout 25 cents per year.
Price = Dividend Yield = (projected) Distributable Income Yield
2.50 = 10% = 11.76%
2.60 = 9.62% = 11.31%
2.70 = 9.26% = 10.89%
2.80 = 8.93% = 10.50%
2.90 = 8.62% = 10.14%
3.00 = 8.33% = 9.8%
3.10 = 8.06% = 9.48%
3.20 = 7.81% = 9.18%
3.30 = 7.58% = 8.91%
3.40 = 7.35% = 8.65%
3.50 = 7.14% = 8.40%
So I added a column for dividend yield, which previously average fair value over the past few years has been 8.1% with a height of 7.25%. Since the payout ratio is no longer an issue from the previous post, this just shows the yield your buying distributable income at. My previous value based on dividend yield stays the same as when I expected the dividend increase, at $3.09 and 3.45, the private placement doesn't really effect this as I previously started because the coverage is still under 100% just seems to have made the dividend and distributable income gap smaller, and you had better value on the distributable income before the new shares.
Anything else I might have screwed up? LoL