Part 2 According to a January 2024 CNBC report, copper prices are projected to surge by over 75% in the next two years due to disruptions in mining supply and increased demand for the metal, particularly driven by the global push for renewable energy. The rise in demand, fueled by the green energy transition, coupled with an expected decline in the US dollar in the latter half of 2024, is expected to contribute to the upward trend in copper prices. Market expectations of potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, leading to a weaker dollar, are seen as a factor making US dollar-priced copper more appealing to foreign buyers.
Over 60 countries endorsed a plan at the recent COP28 climate change conference to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Citibank sees this development as highly positive for copper. In a December report, the bank predicted that the increased targets for renewable energy would lead to an additional demand for 4.2 million tons of copper by 2030. This surge in demand could potentially drive copper prices to $15,000 per ton in 2025, surpassing the previous record peak of $10,730 per ton reached in March 2023. Citi analysts project a positive scenario for copper prices, contingent on a very soft economic landing in the US and Europe, an earlier rebound in global growth, and substantial easing measures in China. The analysts also emphasize the importance of ongoing investments in the energy transition sector for this future.