RE:BNE predictions for 2024 - Let’s have a chat! I think your production numbers are going to be pretty close. Makes for boring reading but.. my guess is 15,400 for the year. Their forecast is actually lower by about 1000 boe but 30 net cardium wells and the Montney tie in should have IP 90 of more than 600 boe if the IP 365 is forecast to be 570 boe. If they dramatically shift drilling to late in the year, I will be way off on average numbers.
For exit production- guessing as low as 15,100 to as high as 17,500. Just depending again on the second Montney and 4 Charlie lake wells and when they are completed and tied in. 16,100 sounds good to me though.
I doubt the CL wells get completed and tied in early and clean up would probably defer most production into 2025 regardless. Two Montney wells could put 1000 to 1300 barrels into the pipe by Q4 though. Or be exiting at 400 barrels if the second one isn't tied in...gas prices over 3.00 early and I think we see drilling and completions moved up. There was also 370? Boe picked up in the acquisition at Bonanza.
the cardium drilling last year ran the company a little harder than they want to on a regular basis. Sometimes you have to spend a little more when the JV partners want to drill though. This year guessing 30-32 wells max. Maybe more like 28-30.
Gas prices are in the cr apper but will probably recover more quickly than expected this summer. New power plants, LNG, coastal line fill, lower gas drilling budgets, more gas into Pacific Northwest yada, yada. Makes it a bit tougher to guess cash flow with all the moving parts but I can't see less than 160 million unless nat gas is still fugly into January.
debt? I will wait for the Q1 update to confirm drilling plans but 120 to 140 million seems reasonable with the CL acquisition. ARO should drop back to 5 million or so after they threw 9 million at it last year. Having such strong exit production this year should spin a lot more free cash if they move to production maintenance only cardium drilling .