RE:RE:Charlie Lake acreage Thanks R.
Having some issues with reconciling production this year with company forecasts.
I haven't called management in quite a while. Thought I would wait until the Montney well is online a month or so before I bug them.
BUT, I am reasonably certain they are sandbagging on average production numbers of up to 14,200 this year.
My guess is it will be 1000 boe higher by year end than forecast, likely a bit more. Based on 7-8 months of flush production from Mntn 1, a month or two from the 4 well CL program, plus current 330 boe from CL wells. That was should add at least1000 boe.
10 cardium wells will be tied in by end of Q1.
38 net Cardium wells drilled last year brought them up to 15,100 in Q4 production. That should move the decline rate up a notch or two for 2024 but the 10 wells tied in has likely maintained production so far.
Random questions/ideas.
what number of wells do they need to drill to stay flat in Cardium? Somewhat dependant on locations obviously, but I was estimating around 28-30 wells are needed to hold production of 14,200 to 14,500.
November 2024 thru March 2025 gas pricing is a lot higher so cash flow will be higher. Just a tiny uptick will see cash flow explode in Q1 2025.
Any idea if Entrada wants another active drilling program this year? Those wells were well above curve last year. And oilier.
Clearly there was far more depth in management than generally credited before George Fink stepped aside. Evidenced by the stupidly cheap Mntn land purchased over 3-4 years and the CL land acquired before the purchase. So maybe something else is coming in the CEO's back yard? They are being conspicuously quiet about the Belly River potential on existing acreage. I suspect there is going to be another shoe dropping there at some point. A good shoe...? I have read about 6 separate companies drilling BR wells recently who were new to the play. YGR just drilled their first. And IPO is very happy with their BR program.
Or maybe there are some Mannville or Glauconite opportunities? It would be nice to have a few high return, cheaper drills in inventory. Like Surge, Lycos or a few others do. They really goose returns.
I did hear that Ricochet had poor results on a Mannville Multilateral near BNE acreage.
The follow up CL purchase shows the current CEO flexing his relationship muscles due to the 9% JV interest. The sellers chose their partner on purpose in my opinion.
Does anyone know how much debt Ricochet and Entrada currently carry?