RE:YGR presentation couple notes on Kavs production comments :
Will see what the production looks like afrer drilling/ completion work was postponed. Water flood and recompletions are a long term benefit and hugely economic in most cases but it can really blow out quarterly op costs. When BNE released their number in Q3 2022 analysts lost their mind for a quarter. Pretty sure ithe stock dropped two dollars in a week or two. Not sure how quickly ygr gets on that or what quarter is impacted. Seems like cold weather would be a rough time to start though?
IPO debt was well under 50 million last i looked.
On sentiment - short positions have really been reducing sector wide instead of rotating into the flavour of the day. Baytex was short over 20 million shares at one point. Lots more stock was issued and now its under 10 million. BNE shorts down 70% in the past month. Almost every one I checked has a big reduction.
About a year ago shorts were increasing into the rally.
apart from nat gas and butane/propane prices there do not seem to be many headwinds.
The bankline is a concern but really they would be more likely to step it down before being more aggressive. If they can free cash flow 25 million it would be huge but if the production declines aggressively or if they can't increase the oil cut, the debt will still be hanging over their head.