RE:RE:RE:Lame duck stockNasty comments, and loose with truthful information.
The drop in the short position was dramatic, and if it were a function of the macro, then the rest of the short positions would have mirrored it. I follow four other energy stocks and none of them show the same pattern. The short position on all of them increased; including BNE's peer, OBE.
BNE's CEO bought over $100K of stock on the open market in the last weeks of March. If that is peanuts in your world, it is a different world than mine. A director both bought stock and exercised options; perhaps you need to educate yourself on how this is presented in the reporting (the exercise of the options is shown as a "sell"; then the acquisition of the shares as a "buy"). Or maybe you are just being a bit loose with your "facts" for your own reasons.
No evidence anywhere that Mr Fink is trading; so what do you base your innuendo on?
Although there has been a run-up in the share price over the past month, I agree that BNE's share price is lagging. Some back-of-an-envelope numbers on the impact of current product pricing is on their projected cash flow leaves me scratching my head too. The Q1 numbers are going to be well ahead of the 2024 guidance. If current pricing continues (and today it is increasing), the upside revision will be massive, and the knock-on in terms of debt reduction; flexibility for increased capex; and an early reinstatement of the dividend will flow from this.
The short traders seem to have done my math; and are closing out (or being forced to close out) positions that no longer have any hope of a payoff.
None of this is a secret. BNE is a very tightly held stock; a factor in why is languishes, as it is hard to do substantive trades. This is a real factor in the lack of institutional trades. A question from the past two years is how the short trade found the free stock to borrow to support the high level of shorting (often half the thin trading there is) that BNE has seen? And now, where is the stock that is selling into the buying pressure coming from? Hints: It is certainly not Mr Fink; or any other insider or long-term holder; or a big institutional owner, as there are none.
My speculation is that much of this has been the "tar sands campaign" crowd, who market to the rich Hollywood environmentalists that shorting our stocks is a way to discourage investment in Western Canadian oil and gas and "save the planet". Perhaps underlying this is that the trendy US investment firms that sell this concept facilitated their scam by buying the stock in one firm to lend it (ostensibly at arms-length) to another to support the short positions. This would protect them when (as is happening now) they have to fold their clients positions (at a loss to the clients). If this was the case, they can now fold the tent quietly; buying from friendly brokers. Profits for all concerned: having made money on the continuous shorting; the loan of the stock; and ultimately on the upside sale. If there is anything to this speculation, I wonder if the Hollywood investors who underwrite it all would know?
The short report yesterday shows that short trading was again very low; indeed overall trading of the stock has fallen just as dramatically as the short position has. What the consolidated short position report at the end of the week shows will again be interesting. One way or another, my guess is that BNE is being set up for a positive breakout.
Which is not lame, but an opportunity.