RE:Strength and vol so heavy Brioche, you beat me to the headline. Yesterday a whopping 1.55 million shares were traded between the US and Canadian tickers. The US ticker, ARMN, traded 846,000 shares dominating the trade. I have not witnessed the US lead Canadian volume. The volume in Aris both north and south of the border has been very high for the last 6 weeks. I have commented these are Institutions buying ,not mom and pop like us.
Today, Gold is down $40, the HUI is down over 10 points and Aris has been neutral to green for the majority of the day. We know how Ian Telfer, Frank Guistra are wheelers and dealers. We also know that Aris (and the entire sector) is trading at absurd low levels relative to Gold (see long term HUI-Gold chart below). It only makes sense to for mid-level to major come and gobble up Aris right now before the nearly development free cost of 100,000 ounces added in Q1 2025 becomes priced in and the 500,000 ounces production of 2026 goes online.
[url=https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?&s=%24HUI%3A%24GOLD&p=M&st=2000-01-01&id=p11032771836&listNum=1&a=728439827]HUI-Gold Ratio Long Term[/url]
Now just for fun, let's do some calculations. A typical offer is 30% premium. At C$5.60, that means the offer would be C$7.28 per share. That's a real nice return for any institution that bought the stock since late March. What is amazing is the return for the Warrants. If the offer came with a cash payout for the A series Warrants, this is what they would pay. Strike is 5.50, stock price C$7.28, volatility = 50% (probably higher), Risk Free Interest Rate = 5.25%, Months to expiry = 14.9. The 2 warrants would be C$1.78 in the money and a time premium of 0.89 for a total of C$2.67. The value per warrant = C$1.34. Today they are trading at C$0.42.
My preference for a buyout for the warrants is for them to continue as warrants for the company buying Aris. Then, the warrant holder can enjoy this Gold bull ride for the next 14 months.
The tea leaves are certainly showing some signs of a pending offer. Either way, I'm just astounded on how an over-bought Aris stock with Gold crapping the bed, is only down 0.30% as I type.