TSX:DHT.UN - Post by User
Post by
retiredcfon May 08, 2024 7:39am
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Post# 36028369
RBC 2
RBC 2Their upside scenario target is $25.00. GLTA
Outperform
TSX: DHT-U; CAD 15.95
Price Target CAD 20.00
Scenario Analysis*
DRI Healthcare Trust
Results ahead of consensus; Strength across the portfolio should offset Oracea concerns (1.5% NAV)
Our view: While Q1/24 total income, cash receipts and adj. EBITDA were ahead of consensus estimates, DRI stock closed down ~4.7%, likely reflecting concerns around the Oracea outlook following an "at-risk" launch by a generic competitor. We note that Oracea is a small part of the overall portfolio (~2.5% of net book value of royalty assets) and the continued strong performance of other drugs in the portfolio (esp. Orserdu) should more than offset Oracea related headwinds. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock and would be buyers after the weakness today.
Key points:
Total income (revenues) well above estimates; Cash royalties ahead of VA consensus but missed RBCe. DRI reported total income of $42.1MM, ~12% ahead of FactSet consensus ($37.7MM) and ~29% ahead of RBCe ($32.6MM). This royalty income should drive royalty receipts over the coming quarters once payment lags of one to three quarters under DRI’s royalty agreements are considered. Total cash royalty receipts were $63.5MM, ~8% below RBCe ($69.1MM) but ~23% ahead of Visible Alpha consensus $51.8MM.
Q1/24 adj. EBITDA of $55.1MM was ahead of FactSet consensus ($54.5MM) but missed RBCe ($62.4MM). The company also recorded an impairment of ~$4.5MM related to the Oracea royalty asset. As we noted in our preview (here), Lupin launched a generic version of Oracea in April. DRI management provided additional details and noted that Lupin launched its generic version of Oracea "at-risk" following a favourable district court ruling in a patent infringement litigation, while the decision from the Appellate Court remains pending. Even though a preliminary injunction by the Appellate Court could prevent revenue erosion of Oracea in the near term until a decision is rendered by the Appellate Court (~12-18 months in our view), we have taken a more conservative view on Oracea and it now represents ~1.5% of our gross NAV (see details on pg4).
Robust ~$3B deal pipeline. Management noted that the deal pipeline remains robust with ~$3B in potential opportunities. The near-to-mid term pipeline (deals that can close within 6-9 months), consists of 11 opportunities and the back-end is compromised of 23 opportunities. All the opportunities are on new assets, not currently in the portfolio.
Estimate revisions. We have updated our estimated NAV for DRI’s royalty portfolio as of Q1/24A and have increased our Orserdu outlook given the strong ramp-up of Orserdu reflected in better than expected Orserdu royalty income. This is offset by a weaker Vonjo and Oracea outlook (see details on pg4). Based on these revisions, our PT remains unchanged at C$20, which is based on an 1.25x operating NAV at 9%, reflecting the optionality inherent in DRI’s business model and our expectation that cash flow will be redeployed into accretive acquisitions.