Great Quarter -2 week Plant startup outage, Kelt's on TrackKelt is being transparent with its description of its activities in Q1 2024
Some production impacts with plant startup issues, out of their control? (Plant)
Plant Outages Q1
2 week (25 MMcf Plant Outage)
2-week (14 day, Q1 90 days) outage of 25 MMcf gas plant. 50% liquids, roughly 8333 boe/day over 14 days = 116,667 boe impaired production = over 90 days = 1290 boe/day impact from 2-week plant outage. (New plant startup)
Impact of Ongoing Plant Impairments
34 MMcf/day impaired 20% in all Q1 or roughly 6.8 MMcf/day (50% Liquids) = 2266 boe/day
Q1 - Production loss due to plant = 1290 + 2266 = 3556 boe/day
Q1 Production 32,910. If Kelt didn’t have the 2-week plant outage the production would be roughly 34,200 or right on forecast. (1290 impaired)
OAK Rampup
OAK added 2 wells in Q1, and 20 MMcf of capacity April 1, 2024, the new wells will with be more liquid rich with flush production. I am not sure what the IP90’s is at Oak. In May these are going to add 3 additional new wells, which will likely move the closer to filling up the 45 MMcf of capacity at Oak.
Kelts 34 MMcf gas plant facility has been operating at 80% roughly (impaired 6.8 MMcf/day) This plant has been impaired for a while, I first notice the loss in Q3 reporting of 2023, and now it will get repaired in Q2 of 2024. The plant downtime for repairs will cause a loss of about 9000 boe/day ( over approx. 14 days) in the second quarter, or 127,000/91days = impact roughly 1,400 boe/day for Q2.
In Q3 everything should be fixed and hopefully we do not have any impairment for downtime, (1,400 boe/day) and should add 6.8 MMcf a day because the plant is fixed or another 1,100 boe/day roughly.
Kelts Production is plant constrained by it gas plant, and gas plant outages have directly impact production result a bit.
Q1 march production was 34,000 boe/day about 1100 boe higher than Q1 average production. Q2 will likely be the similar production to Q1 with a little more production added at Oak 33,000 + Oak will likely get them close to 36,000 day.
In Q3 more Oak wells common on stream (3) and If they don’t have any more plant outages Wembley will add 1290 boe of Q2 lost production due to plant + 2,266 gain because of 6.8 MMcf of a addition processing. This gets Kelt to 36,000 – 3700 boe/day
IN Q4 with 50 MMcf of capacity coming on with 57-62% liquids (17,000 – 19,000)boe/day. Kelt experiences a major boast in production and it is well not forecast the production increase from this additional capacity.
Kelt is on track, no surprizes, and the CVS albright plant will beging testing in September according to their schedule, i noticed they are already hiring staff for this facility.
Kelt it executing their plan with no surprizes, so plant operational issues, but with new plant startup should be expected.
Good job team, keep up the good work, all the number are reasonable, and their is a posibility to exceed especially with some high productivity wells at Pouce Coupe West, that i am not sure are in the forecast.
IMHO