| Fastmarkets - May 21, 2024 Fastmarkets rounds up the key discussion points at the 30th annual Cobalt Institute conference in New York, from May 12-14 ... Fastmarkets rounds up the key discussion points at the 30th annual Cobalt Institute conference in New York, from May 12-14 ... CMOC reported a 392% year-on-year increase in cobalt output of 2024 at 25,202 tonnes for the first quarter. Copper output increased 123% to 147,494 tonnes over the same period…“If the first quarter figures continue at that rate, that’s 100,000 tonnes for 2024 which is unheard of, I don’t know where that extra volume will go and the price is going to be hit by that,” one trader said…With conference delegates believing that high supply levels will persist for the remainder of 2024, some felt any cobalt price increase had to find an incentive from the demand side…“The low cobalt price will help stimulate the consumption aspect of the market; it gives the market confidence to invest,” one presenter said…“Despite the price weakness, the demand level grew and hit over 200,000 tonnes for the first time,” Jose Fernandez, the US under-secretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, said in his opening address to the conference…The Fastmarkets research team forecasts a cobalt demand figure of 231,000 tonnes for 2024, an increase of 21,000 tonnes from 2023…Demand from the consumer electronics market has recovered during the first four months of the year due to stronger personal computer (PC), tablet and smartphone sales. After two years of decline, the global PC market returned to growth in the first quarter of 2024, up 1.5% year on year. Smartphone sales began to recover in the fourth quarter of 2023, with 8.5% growth year on year, according to figures published by Fastmarkets…Delegates at the conference discussed the topic of government stockpiling, offering up a sense of surprise that China’s Strategic Reserves Bureau (SRB) had not purchased volumes at current levels…Historically, the SRB will look to buy sizeable volumes when prices are low, and had reportedly bought a total volume of around 8,000 tonnes of cobalt last year in two purchases. One planned purchase had been rumored earlier this year but no such deal occurred…Fastmarkets’ assessment for cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam was at $11.50-14.15 per lb on May 20, down from $11.50-14.20 per lb previously…With the conference taking place in New York, some delegates questioned whether the US would soon make a metal purchase for its strategic stockpiles…The US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) historically has stockpiled metals and alloys deemed critical to the US defense sector, buying and selling cobalt metal in large volumes at the turn of the millennium…The DLA held an estimated 302 tonnes of cobalt in its stockpile as of 2022, according to the US Geological Survey. In 1990, the stockpile had over 24,000 tonnes of cobalt, with the DLA opting to sell this material back into the market over the past 33 years…Late last year, a recommendation was proposed by a group in the US House of Representatives asking for a “Resilient Resource Reserve” to be created to sustain prices of cobalt and other minerals above certain levels to protect from price volatility…Some delegates mentioned that black mass is largely unavailable in the United States due to low rates of EV recycling, though supply is expected to increase in the next decade…Fastmarkets analyst Robert Searle reported that battery metals including lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese from battery recycling accounted for 5% of total supply in 2023, and will increase to 13% in 2033. By 2034, roughly 122,000 tonnes of secondary cobalt will be produced from battery recycling, according to his 10-year forecast. |