RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:100m$ mcWell Frank my thesis is that oil prices will trend lower over the medium to long term with short term volatility spikes up because of hurricanes and I'm gonna put my money where my thesis is.
September is peak month for hurricanes. NOAA expects at least 3 major hurricanes cat 3 or higher. Baytex bte is listed on the Montreal Options exchange. I'll wait until Sept and if a major hurricane hits the GOM oil prices will spike. Bte put options will drop. I'll buy up a bunch of msybe $3 puts a long time out when they're really cheap. Then I'll wait until oil prices return to their normal trend line. Bte sp will drop as netbacks shrink. Plus they have little cushion in Eagle Ford where their break even costs are $58 per barrel. Plus oil field services costs are going up so that'll also increase their operating expenses and break even costs. So their sp will drop as oil prices drop. I'm thinking less than $3 per share.
Anyway I'll sell the puts and invest in Guyana gas somehow. Hoping that cgx is stilk a going concern with 27% of a huge gas field.