The Big Picture Has Not Changed ... Just DelayedTrillion has never been fairly valued and I do not expect it to be until we are in full production with a track record. Reviewing my DD, reading many of the last News Releases and listening to 5 Dr. Haleron videos ... I have came back to my original position of being long TCF. After 5 years being invested here ... I am now getting excited that within 2 months we should be in full production with the current 6 wells being rehabilated. Our new COO has proposed a tried method of correcting the water issues facing the wells. The method is cost effective and time effective ... all in 2 months from now. Then, they are continueing with a proposed 6 more wells as reported. I believe that we are finally on our way...
Millions of dollars were saved by Implementing the Long Lead Piping and drawing the gas to existing platforms. Now with the cost effective Velocity Strings being inserted down into the gas pools ... it is just a matter of time...8 weeks to be exact. This is not his first Rodeo ...His proposed solution to the water build up issue has saved shareholders millions of dollars versus the other options. Christmas Bonus for sure.
Our new Cheif Operating Office Al Thorsen states:
“From my experience, velocity strings are the best solution at this stage of the gas producing wells as velocity strings are cheap to install, relatively simple to operate, have no moving parts and are well suited to high gas producing wells. These wells have large volumes of gas yet to produce and the velocity string is the first step, in the future 5 to 6 years from now when the wells have most of the gas produced, at that time PCP pumps or ESP will be installed to extend the gas producing life of the wells”.
Installing velocity strings requires substantially less capital compared to installing PCPs and is much faster.
I expecty nothing less ...The current guidance from Art is a continued projection rate of 1.5 MMCF/D per well (TCF portion) when fully up and running. Thats 7.5 MMCF/D for the first 6 wells. From August to December the plan is for 6 more wells that is from known reserves. So our exit rate is estimated at 15.0 MMCF/D. That is about $150,000 USD per DAY ... using $10 USD net backs to TCF. That ends up being an estimated $50 Million USD of Income less debt payments and usual below the line expenses. The following is my calculation using EPS Earning Per Share as the factor to apply a value and share price. Just because TCF trades at no recognition for its reserves, platforms or for its 3 oil leases and the market is voting against the success of the water solution and the 6 wells coming online in 2 months. Echelon stands to be the big winner ... they will double or triple their investment and make millions on their opportunity as they have bought 25% of our equity for pennies on the dollar....
The following calculation is mine ... I use it as one indicator of determining future value once in production.
$50 Million USD + 30% exchange rate to CAD = $65 Million CAD
$65 M CAD Divided by estimated current shares outstanding of 150 M = 0.43 Earning Per Share.
Using Echelon and Eight Capital Reports and a conservative 2.5 Ratio we can see that by years end our value will be near to $1.00 per share CAD. Might be a good Christmas ... I have waited a few already ....
I am looking forward to the day that TCF announces they are starting to insert the Gas Velocity Strings into the first well ...