RE:Some Questions on Crude Oil Pricinglastpick....great questions...
The short answer to your question can be summed inn two words (well technically three...lol)....
You can't...
Unless of course you have nothing else to do with your life and oil stocks are 100% of you portfolio and you have unlimited free data sources and computer software to analyze this data.
The way I approach these types of things is something I have talked about in past posts. My analysis has to fit on the back of an envelope or it is too complicated. By that I mean I look for one or two indicators which in some sense are summation of a whole bunch of factors (such as those you outlined in you post) and rely on them as a major factor to make investment decisions.
In the case of oil, a key indicator is the relative price of Brent crude to the Saudi full cost of production (ie taking into account their social costs). Many people peg this number at $85 a barrel although I use this figure, my gut instinct is that the number is probably closer to $80. So when the price is near this price the market is in equilibrium and as such I don't expect much change in the price of oil and so other investments are likely to be more profitable trades but a hold is OK too. If the price shoots up a lot higher (eg after Russia invaded Ukraine then if one holds oil stocks it would be a good time to take profits. Conversely, when the price is significantly below that price then it is good time to be a buyer of oil stocks.
Hope this helps...