Aston Bay Holdings Ltd V.BAY

Sweet Copper BOOOOM Baby BOOOOM

[Fishercat1]

Copper

Be Bold and Mighty Forces Will Come to Your Aid (someone once said that)

Going into the rally that saw copper take out record highs above $11k a ton last month, Rokos Capital and Andurand Capital tabled some weighty wagers on the long side - Hedge funds Andurand and Rokos took big copper bets before spike.

They made bank with these early wins, but they're betting on more upside. Waaaay more.

Rokos has made a flurry of options purchases in the past several months in a bet that copper could rally to $20,000 or more over the next few years, according to people familiar with the matter. At Andurand, copper was the biggest position by market exposure at the end of April, and the trader has recently predicted that prices could hit $40,000. Those targets are well beyond the forecasts of even the most bullish Wall Street banks.

Long positions held by fund managers on both sides of the pond (London and New York) have tripled this year. As of mid-May, $45 billion had flowed into long-side positioning, surpassing previous records set in 2018.

The influx of new money into copper has bemused some industry insiders, who point to weak demand in China and a well-supplied metal market. However, a series of mine setbacks in recent months has helped spur increasingly bullish investment bank forecasts suggesting that a long-predicted global shortage may arrive earlier than expected. The investment thesis for copper — that demand is expected to surge thanks to energy-transition demand — has also received a boost from recent excitement around artificial intelligence and data centers.

Andurand’s central commodities funds racked up gains of between 13% and 30% in April, thanks largely to their bold bets in the copper space.

“We believe that we are at the beginning of the copper bull-market and that the recent move higher in prices is just the start. Copper faces a decade-long supply deficit driven by the confluence of increasing demand due to the energy transition and persistent underinvestment in mine expansion.”

General Mining Sector News

Ivanhoe's Congo Cu Complex Ranks Third Globally

Earlier this week, Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) announced its first concentrate production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - Ivanhoe Mines Reports First Concentrate from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 3 Concentrator on June 10, Several Months Ahead of Schedule.

Kamoa-Kakula, a joint venture between Ivanhoe (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global Limited (0.8%), and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (20%), is slated to produce between 440,000 and 490,000 tonnes of copper (in concentrate) this year, as per the company's guidance. Significantly, Phase Three was completed months ahead of schedule and on budget. Once fully ramped, the company expects output of 600k-plus tonnes per year.

With the addition of this third concentrator—Phase 3's capacity is 30% greater than Phase 1 and 2—Kamoa-Kakula now claims the third highest rank amongst the largest copper mining complexes in the world, behind only Escondida in Chile and Grasberg in Indonesia (it holds top spot on the African continent).

Interestingly, Ivanhoe is engaged in a balls-to-the-wall 70,000-metre drill campaign at its majority-owned, 2,650-km2 Western Foreland license (adjacent to Kamoa-Kakula) where ten rigs are currently turning at the Makoko and Kitoko target areas.

This initial phase of the program is designed to expand and delineate these high-grade copper discoveries ahead of potential engineering and planning work to study opportunities to also accelerate copper production growth from these licenses. Further exploration is planned on regional targets deemed prospective for additional sediment-hosted, high-grade copper deposits.

Freeport-McMoRan Looking for a New Gear

Freeport-McMoRan’s new boss, Kathleen Quirk, is thinking outside the box; says she’s intent on unlocking value in a massive stockpile of waste rock in an “aggressive” push to boost supply amidst unprecedented global demand - Freeport-McMoRan Is Looking for Ways to Expand Copper Production, CEO Says.

The US copper giant has been generating strong profits in recent years from its operations in the US and Indonesia, drawing speculation it could put those returns toward takeovers after years on the sidelines. The firm spent much of the past decade cutting costs, reducing debt and resolving a yearslong dispute over ownership of Grasberg mine with Indonesia’s government.

CEO Quirk is betting big on a new technology, one currently under development, to extract copper from the waste rock that has been accumulating on the surface for decades. Over the next three to five years, Quirk hopes to generate up to 800 million pounds of copper through this new processing technology—equal to one-fifth of its current total production.

CEO Quirk: “That’s the size of a big mine. That’s meaningful. Our team is working very aggressively to get that done. I’m really focused on this issue, because when we look around, we know how hard it is to develop new supply.”

BHP, Rio Tinto Group, and Antofagasta Plc are also developing similar waste rock extraction technologies, or are working with outside parties to find ways to do so.

Addressing the dearth of available deals in the Cu space, Quirk went on to add: “You’re looking at this situation with the market being so tight, and there are not obvious actionable projects that can fill that gap. That situation is causing us to be more innovative — to figure out how to help fill this gap.”

Freeport has already extracted an additional 200 million pounds of copper through the recovery process, and is targeting another 200 million pounds in the next two years. Developing the complex technology has stalled the firm’s push to hit 800 million pounds, but Quirk said the company is making progress.

Fireweed Coffers Stoked to Aggressively Drill Macpass

Last week, Fireweed Metals (FWZ.V) tabled a $30 million PP to fund an aggressive drill campaign at its flagship Macpass Project in Canada’s Yukon Territory - Fireweed Announces $30 Million Financing.

The following day it was upsized to $41.7 million with the Lundin family trusts, along with other key shareholders, expected to take down the full weight - Fireweed Metals Increases Private Placement to C$41.7M Million.

The offering comprises 12,727,273 common shares priced at $1.10 per share and 16,128,243 flow-through shares deemed “Premium Flow-Through Shares.”

On deck is a 14,000-meter campaign designed to expand the pound count at MacPass, considered one of the world’s largest undeveloped zinc resources, which currently stands at:

• 11.21 Mt Indicated @ 9.61% ZnEq (6.59% Zinc, 2.48% Lead, 21.33 g/t Silver);
• 39.47 Mt Inferred @ 10.00% ZnEq (5.84% Zinc, 3.14% Lead, 38.15 g/t Silver)