RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Good Luck to All LongsI know to well Peyto's story since I am a shareholder since 2007.
And yes, they took horrible decisions in 2017 and 2018:
- Bad basis deals,
- AECO exposure
- Too aggressive capex program
- Hedging a pile of production under $2.50/GJ
- Financing dividends with debt, etc.
I expect the Board of Directors to have learnt from their mistakes. If I see they have not, I will reduce considerably my position. For the next two years, the volatility of their free cash flows will be mostly explained by the adjusment in their capex program relative to Natgas and NGL prices, more specifically 2027 and 2028 futures prices. Hopefully, they will have the wisdom to use this flexibility to avoid a similar scenario to 2019-2020.
I expect Peyto's payout ration to be 95% of Free Cash Flows in 2024.
I also use technical analysis before entering in position. BCE charts looks quite ugly right now. It is a red flag in my book.
Thank you for sharing...