RE:Jamie Heard on AECO stripI'm not familiar with the Canadian natgas market but in the US, I opine as follows:
- storage is gradually coming down. This morning's EIA report shows we're 314 BCF above '23 and 528 above the 5 year. We have 11 weeks (reports) to labor day so I think by then storage will be less than '23 and maybe a bit more than 5 year.
- Production is starting to creep back up again despite much less drills (esp Haynesville) and completes. Who knows the exact reasons - shut in wells back online, longer laterals, high grading, higher productivity, associated gas of course, additional pipeline capacity (Texas and Appalachian).
- LNG is disappointing again, down to ~11BCF the last few days.
- Other power gen sources - wind and notably, coal! - are up YoY.
- Weather is very hot and July/August preliminary forecast more of the same.
- Natural gas power gen becoming more swing source of power now - ie in low season it loses share and in high season (Dec-Feb, June-Sept?) it gains it. So next couple months could be doozies.
- a lot of producer hedges come off in Q4. So if strip prices don't go up, there could be IMO further capex reductions (drilling/completing cuts).